The IT continued its curious relationship with Covid-19 with a piece late last night/early this morning querying the current increase in restrictions. Paul Cullen wrote:
Almost a year since we started fighting the disease, lockdown remains the fallback response of politicians when they can no longer ignore the warnings delivered by public health officials. With the decision to delay the reopening of schools in the Republic, the final plank in the Government’s strategy for tackling Covid-19 has been swept away.
Perhaps that is because the strategy was flawed from the beginning, built on the premise that the virus was controlled and controllable in ways that it clearly wasn’t. Indeed at every point where restrictions have been lifted the virus as surged once more and now we are in a position where the situation appears to be as bad or worse than it was in April. Curiously, though, Cullen appears much more exercised by the near technicalities than the realty of the virus and how it spreads when unchecked. For example:
As a nation we are now shutting our schools and depriving our students of a proper education, while at the same time leaving off-licences open. This even though alcohol has repeatedly been identified as a driver of unsafe socialisation and although the biggest rises in case numbers are occurring in 18- to 34-year-olds, traditionally the biggest consumers of alcohol.
Isn’t that an irrelevancy? The Government hasn’t exactly brought heavy pressure to bear in regard of restrictions, the idea it would police people’s homes is an absurdity. So off-licenses will remain open while schools close. And there’s a further point – the idea is to cut social and other interactions in the population, so closing schools, even for a short period, makes a greater impact than closing off-licenses. This is basic stuff.
Then there’s this curious assertion:
And while Johnson’s government may have made a hames of responding to the crisis for much of this year, the UK appears to be leading the way in terms of vaccine approval and genetic research into the virus.
That too is something of an irrelevancy as regards genetic research. A state with a population many multiples of our own and with an industrial and scientific research base to mass is always going too be better positioned in regard of that. But in terms of approval Cullen well knows that the European Medicines Agency has taken a more cautious approach than the UK government (Cullen calls it ‘relaxed’ which seems inappropriate). That may be sensible. Yet he persists in this line…
At this stage it is unclear whether the new UK and South African variants of the virus are as much a threat as they have been made out to be, but if this does prove the case we will be indebted to the work of scientists in London and Porton Down, not Brussels.
Then he asks:
This new lockdown will work to a point. The Christmas effect will wear off; most people will hole themselves up for January. Things will get worse for a while, then improve But then what? The old questions remain; what do you do then? Do you lift restrictions at the end of January, just as we did at the start of this month? Or do you continue the lockdown into the spring, with all that entails?
The answer is blindingly obvious – if the situation is as bad then as it is now then unfortunately lockdown will continue. Because the old answer comes into play as noted above – health services, society, cannot bear the weight of unrestricted transmission of the virus. It’s genuinely strange that at this point, having seen how this plays out, there’s any real issue about it. Even he has to admit that ‘the only game in town from now on is the vaccine’. But as we know the vaccine is only a single part of a larger suite of responses to the virus, that in and of itself the vaccine will not be sufficient.