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Month: September 2014

“Peak unravelling”…

I heard a great phrase on an Australian politics podcast recently where someone said ‘had we reached peak unravelling for this government?’. I wonder have we seen that with our own government? Or is it a case of further serious trouble ahead or a slow decline as we roll towards the election?

Killing the story is apparently the name of the game this afternoon and evening with the news that John McNulty has withdrawn from the Seanad by-election and with the resignation of Hilary Quinlan from the board of Irish Water. A shame the appropriateness or otherwise of a board member of a semi-state utility working with a Minister of State wasn’t seen as a problem from the off.

A most illuminating insight in the space of a week – and no wonder they did resign given that the McNulty story had traction across and over a week and was given added impetus by the latest revelations – into the attitudes of our government party to matters of administration.

By the way, I’m a bit surprised at how many have spoken of this beyond those of us involved, active or interested in politics. Just in passing – perhaps, but it does seem to have impinged on the broader consciousness. That can’t be good for FG.

Sports Special – what you want to say… 30th September 2014

Here’s our weekly thread for people to talk, sound off, discuss, give out, or whatever they want about sport… and by the way, if anyone has posts they think would be appropriate for the site on sport send them in…

Keeping the dial pushed rightwards

A most telling piece in the SBP this weekend about the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and how its chair, John McHale has suggested that “If I found I wasn’t having an effect, I would consider my position.” The SBP itself notes that in the four years since the establishment of IFAC its recommendation has been implemented once and in three other instances the government has taken a somewhat different line. It’s also worth noting that IFAC has been resolutely conservative in its advice, seeking greater ‘fiscal discipline’ at all times.

But:

…members of the council admit that the government will hit the official deficit target of 3 per cent of GDP with a neutral budget, last week they warned that “compliance with the official targets does not mean that the overriding task of repairing the public finances has been accomplished”.

Which makes me wonder whether its not the very idea that IFAC’s advice has to be taken for it to be functioning properly. Advice, after all, is not proscriptive. And IFAC’s view is a very specific one which need not – by dint of its nature – take into account other factors, such as whether politically as well as economically a measure is implementable.

Indeed one could argue, and no doubt this is the line from the government that if the 3 per cent official target is being met then all is – reasonably – well, from the perspective of the financial direction of the state. Which also makes the following intriguing:

In an interview with The Sunday Business Post, McHale outlined his concerns about pressures distracting the government from making the necessary adjustments.
“Political pressures are pushing towards a relaxation of fiscal discipline. There’s pressures from interest groups and the political cycle, and it’s striking how quickly they’ve arisen.”

But again, there’s been no real relaxation. IFAC wants more, but it cannot deny that the framework already established is being adhered to.

And that I think points up a key aspect of this. If the government were to deviate from the official targets then it seems reasonable to suggest that were IFAC to issue a warning over same it would be entirely valid – in the context of the orthodoxy. That, in a sense, is when its core purpose as a ‘watchdog’ comes into operation. But for the government to keep to the 3 per cent target even if IFAC advises more is not, as such, problematic.

But in case all this sounds like an apologia for the status quo let me be clear. IFAC seems to me to be of one mind in pushing the dial in a certain direction, that is more rather than less ‘austerity’ and its public pronouncements are of a piece with this. That in itself can serve a useful function by keeping the terrain upon which the debate is shaped tilting in a certain way. And that – whatever the nature of IFAC itself or its stated goals – serves a purpose.

Prospects for the further left…

As mentioned earlier in the week, there’s a profile in the Phoenix of Paul Murphy. But as I saw that advertised on the front cover when I purchased it I realised that it would more than likely be an overview of the SP. And imagine my lack of surprise when on reading the piece it turned out to be an overview of the SP, the SWP and so on – though with a curious drive through of SF’s candidate strategy in Dublin South-West, that latter due to the somewhat tenuous linkage that Murphy will run as the SP candidate at the Dublin South-West by-election.

The Phoenix argues that since DSW is about to go up from four to five seats it’s the GE that he and the SP are looking for as they seek to retain two seats for the SP in the Dáil with the imminent retirement from that institution by Joe Higgins.

It notes that back in the early days of the ULA things were happier, at least on the surface. 2011 saw five TDs, Higgins, Daly, Boyd Barrett, Joan Collins and Seamus Healy elected broadly speaking under that banner, though in actual fact they were elected under their individual party designations i.e. SP, PBP, etc.
As we know, the ULA disintegrated in the subsequent two or so years, with consequent, and in some instances, understandable frustration and upset on the part of many involved. And since then we’ve seen some depressing examples of political manoeuvring – most notably at the European Elections where the prospects for retention of a further left seat faded when both the SP and PBP contested it. The Phoenix argues that in relation to that: ‘Smith’s real goal is a Dáil seat in Dublin South-Central in the knowledge that this is only attainable by replacing ‘Comrade’ Collins’.

The Phoenix suggests that ‘despite modest gains in the local elections, the prospects for growth for both the far-left groups is bleak, and in fact they may struggle to hold on to any of their Dáil seats’. It is true that the locals didn’t bring massive breakthroughs, but, in truth both did build on pre-existing numbers of councillors in their respective alliances – AAA and PBP. One could argue that those will provide a core of activity around which Dáil campaigns can be supported. And, as or more importantly, vice versa.

In any event the Phoenix lists the constituencies. It’s all pessimism about Dun Laoghaire, which surprised me, but it makes a very solid point – ‘two of RBB’s comrades won council seats but with only a combined total of just over half what the TD secured in 2009’ and that in addition to the fact that due to the Ceann Comhairle being returned unelected the constituency will effectively drop to a three seater. The Phoenix thinks FF and FG will take a seat each leaving the rest to FG, the LP or RBB.

Dublin Mid-West (sic), well it argues that there are only two seats up for grabs after FG and FF, with SF, LP and the SP fighting for them. I’d think the LP might be the loser here, but it is Burton so that could alter things. SF is solidly in contention. But there’s a strong legacy from Higgins and I’m unconvinced that in any event, legacy or not, Coppinger won’t take the seat on her own strengths.

Dublin South-Central is a mess. Collins should on the face of it win. But Smith’s presence throws predictions, and SF is in contention too for a second seat (the Phoenix notes that Daithí Doolan did particularly well).

The Phoenix puts forward the case that in a way only Collins and Daly seem more rather than less likely to be re-elected, and it suggests rather tenuously that it is because they slipped the ‘straitjacket’ of ‘narrowly ideological parties’. Perhaps so. Perhaps so. But it seems to me that it’s more likely that specific circumstance in constituencies is shaping this contest. RBB is unfortunate that it’s the Ceann Comhairle. Collins unlucky that her erstwhile comrades would be so provocative. It’s far too soon to write off Coppinger.

It is true that other seats around the country don’t seem to herald any great breakthrough. But while I think there will be losses from the original five I think on a good day it might just be one or two. So not quite the wipe-out of the further left that the Phoenix would seem to make out. Indeed there’s a sense that perhaps that argument is overdone. I doubt anyone at this point expects runaway electoral and/or other success any time soon, perhaps not for decades, perhaps never. But matters staying more or less the same is far from matters going into reverse.

Referencing Adrian Kavanagh’s projections, while they’re obviously broad brush stroke they seem to point to holds, if not quite gains, for many or most further left TDs in the Dáil.

Dun Laoghaire: Jennifer Cuffe FF, Sean Barrett FG, Mary Mitchell O’Connor FG, Richard Boyd Barrett PBP

Dublin South Central: Catherine Byrne FG, Eric Byrne LAB, Aengus O Snodaigh SF, Joan Collins UL

Dublin South West: John Lahart FF, Cait Keane FG, Pat Rabbitte LAB, Sean Crowe SF, Cathal King SF

Dublin West: David McGuinness FF, Leo Varadkar FG, Joan Burton LAB, Ruth Coppinger SP

Dublin Fingal: Darragh O’Brien FF, James Reilly FG, Brendan Ryan LAB, David Healy GP, Clare Daly UL

Tipperary: Michael Smith FF, Tom Hayes FG, Michael Lowry IND, Mattie McGrath IND, Seamus Healy WUAG

So, ironically, it’s more a question of much the same as 2011: UL 2, PBP 1, SP 1, and WUAG 1. All that has happened has been a repositioning within that original 5. And of course this is only one projection and only based on the current situation.

In fairness the profile is quite complimentary to Murphy, noting his hard work on the ground and in Europe over the years. But there’s a lot of questionable stuff. Is Murphy being groomed to be the public face of the SP? Does that even make sense in the context of the sort of party the SP is? Are the SP’s and the SWP’s attitude to the North really so similar? Is the latter ‘effectively abstentionist on the national question and hostile to Irish nationalism’?

I think it probably is true that SF will roll forward yet again, picking up seats here and there that were entirely unexpected, and in a way that may be deeply problematic to the further left blocking gains here and there. There’s also the point that the demise of the ULA was a profoundly demoralising experience with ramifications that are still reverberating around the left to this day. And there’s the clear problem of having similar organisations contesting much the same electoral ground, or in some instances, as noted above exactly the same electoral ground.

In a way, though, surely another way of looking at it is that the further left has planted a flag on electoral terrain, taken and is in the process of holding seats. This despite all the problems that the Phoenix has listed, and one or two it hasn’t! In other words, despite everything the further left party least likely to return a TD next time out is not the SP, but the SWP/PBP. That most or all of the other TDs elected in 2011 will be returned. There’s an outside chance of one or two more. Sure, not exactly a ringing endorsement and unlikely to alter the overall balance of power in the next Dáil or all that much outside it if economic conditions continue to strengthen, but not entirely discreditable.

Actually a much more interesting question presents itself, and that is what, if anything, can be done with these resources, that likely 5 TDs and those three groups/parties, in relation to a broader consolidation of the Irish left.

Jobseekers allowance?

The Minister of State at the Department of the Environment has hired a director of Irish Water – the semi-State company his department oversees – as his personal driver, The Irish Times has learned.

Check this out:

Mr Quinlan [the director] added: “You tell me one party out there who doesn’t look after their own. I don’t see anything wrong with it. It’s politics.” He asked why there isn’t more of a focus on the economy. “We were all nearly eating out of bins three years ago.”

Left Timeline: Fasten Your Anorak, We’re Going to Need a Bigger Graph

As posted here previously, there’s a timeline of Irish Left organisations taking shape on the Irish Left Archive site. Thanks to everyone who commented with additions and corrections, and in particular to John Goodwillie, on whose work in Gralton the initial timeline was based, and who also provided a number of corrections.

Since it was posted there have been a couple of dozen additions, and numerous corrections, so the feedback has been very helpful. It should already be a lot more accurate and comprehensive than where it started.

It’s also getting inevitably larger, so I’ve added a search feature that should make it easier to find an organisation from among the mass of links, and also to spot any that are missing. There remain some groups which have been hard to pin down, including some already represented in the archive, which hopefully some readers will be able to assist with, and no doubt others that I haven’t come across.

You’ll notice there are different markers for the end of organisations where I’ve had to estimate the year. Short of an official dissolution, end dates can be hard to set for organisations, and often they may limp on long after any real activity, but if anyone has a more accurate guess for these, do let us know in the comments.

As with the archive itself, the intention is for the timeline to be quite broadly inclusive. So, short of including lots of single issue campaigns, which I expect would make it unmanageable, any suggestions are very welcome.

View the Timeline of the Irish Left here.

Let’s hope the good Lord he’s right…

I’m not much of a fan of the BLP, though there are good people in it, and many years ago I was a member of it for a couple of years. But when it comes to the Tories I’m happy to read the following:

Labour is heading for a “comfortable majority” at the UK general election as the Conservatives have lost a third of their support and are only attracting a small number of new voters, polling by former Conservative donor Lord Ashcroft has suggested.