Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement in Mecca on Friday in the presence of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
According to a joint statement, the pact is intended to strengthen collective deterrence and expand defense cooperation, stipulating that an armed attack on any single signatory will be regarded as an attack on all.
Egypt, however, was not part of the new pact, despite participating over the past several months in a series of security meetings with the three nations focused on regional security and the U.S.–Iran conflict.
The agreement comes after a regasification vessel at Egypt’s Damietta Port on the Mediterranean Sea was struck by drones in an attack for which authorities have yet to identify those responsible.
On June 21, Cairo hosted a meeting of the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan to discuss regional developments and diplomatic efforts to end the war between Washington and Tehran. The gathering followed three earlier four-nation meetings in Riyadh, Islamabad, and Antalya, the latest of which took place on April 17.
As of the publication of this report, Egypt had not issued an official statement on the Mecca agreement.
Egyptian political analyst Gamal Raif told MBN that Cairo does not share the same strategic motivations that led Saudi Arabia to pursue this arrangement. Riyadh, he noted, has become increasingly exposed to fallout from the regional conflict, prompting it to reinforce deterrence through broader defense partnerships.
Egypt’s constitution also places limits on overseas military deployments. Article 152 stipulates that the president may neither declare war nor send troops on combat missions outside the country’s borders without first consulting the National Defense Council and obtaining a two-thirds parliamentary majority. While these provisions do not strictly prohibit defense treaties, they require any external force deployment to undergo explicit constitutional approval.
Despite these constitutional constraints, Cairo does engage in bilateral military cooperation. In May, the United Arab Emirates announced the deployment of an Egyptian fighter detachment to Abu Dhabi, where Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed inspected the deployed forces.
Maj. Gen. Osama Kabir, an adviser at Egypt’s Command and Staff College, told MBN that Egypt relies primarily on its own military capabilities and avoids deepening its role in regional conflicts, particularly given its ongoing diplomatic engagements with Iran.
Political analyst Faisal Al-Shammari emphasized that Egypt’s absence should not be viewed as an exclusion from broader security arrangements. “Cairo remains part of a consultative framework with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan,” he told MBN. “The Mecca agreement emerged from a separate defense track pursued by the three countries.” He added that no public evidence indicates Cairo was formally invited and declined, or whether the pact allows future member accession.
Speaking after the signing ceremony, President Erdogan said the agreement was open to “brotherly nations” interested in joining, leaving the door open for future expansion. Neither Egypt nor the signatory states, however, have announced any talks regarding Cairo’s possible accession.
Taha Odeh Oglu, a researcher specializing in Turkish affairs and international relations, said Egypt’s absence at this stage should not necessarily be interpreted as opposition to the agreement. Any future expansion, he said, would depend on how regional security arrangements evolve.
The Mecca agreement comes as Saudi Arabia faces mounting security threats, particularly from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and other armed groups aligned with Tehran, as well as continued instability along key regional shipping routes.
In recent days, the Houthis have claimed attacks on vessels linked to Saudi Arabia, while other ships have altered their routes to avoid risks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Al-Shammari said that although the agreement was not presented as targeting any specific country, it is difficult to separate it from those threats and the broader escalation involving Iran-aligned groups.
He cautioned, however, against interpreting the mutual defense clause as an automatic commitment to war.
“The provision treating an attack on one of the three countries as an attack on all does not necessarily mean that the first Houthi missile would automatically send the Turkish military into a war in Yemen,” he said. Depending on the nature of the attack and decisions made by the three governments, the response could begin with intelligence cooperation, air defense support or logistical assistance.
The agreement unites Saudi Arabia with two militarily distinct partners: Turkey, a NATO member with significant defense production capabilities, and Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state with decades-long military ties to Riyadh.
The official documents, however, make no reference to a nuclear umbrella and do not specify the nature of the military response expected from each country if another signatory comes under attack.
Saudi Arabia has also said the agreement is not intended to establish a military bloc or sectarian alliance, is unrelated to an arms race or nuclear ambitions, and will not come at the expense of its Gulf, Arab or international partnerships.
For Ankara, the pact reflects the continued expansion of its defense ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Burcu Ozcelik, head of the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Security Program at the Royal United Services Institute, said the agreement should not be viewed as evidence of a diminished U.S. role in the region. Instead, she said, it aligns with Washington’s broader approach of encouraging regional partners to assume a greater share of the security burden.
She noted that the agreement followed months of regional consultations involving the three signatories as well as Egypt.
Odeh Oglu said Turkey is placing increasing emphasis on security in the Gulf and the Red Sea, but he said the agreement should not be interpreted as signaling the deployment of Turkish troops to Yemen.
Turkey’s participation gives the agreement added strategic weight because of Ankara’s NATO membership, military experience and defense industry.
Even so, Egypt’s absence remains a central question. Cairo participated in the political consultations that brought the four countries together over the past several months but did not join the other three in signing the mutual defense agreement.
So far, Egypt has offered no official explanation for its decision, and there is no public evidence that Cairo was offered membership and declined.
Adapted and translated from the original Arabic.
