Sibylla Bostoniensis

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Geolocation note: my attention here is on the US, but this likely pertains to areas outside the US, aeb the reports from China discussed below

If for some reason you stopped masking everywhere, now would be an excellent time to resume masking, and use a N95/KN95 or better.

I have a longer post in the works, but am getting overtaken by events. I've gotten multiple reports that there's waves of some serious unidentified flu like illness(s) hitting areas hard enough to shut down schools and fill hospitals.

Here's one a little bird just forwarded me:

2025 Feb 7: u/Penguin_shit15 in r/r/HermanCainAward: "Just giving y'all a heads up. (Hospital Administrator guy here)":

[...]

Unfortunately, I think we are headed for another pandemic and to be honest, I think we are already in the middle of it. I have basically 5 hospitals and over 100 clinics in our health system, and I have not seen it this bad since covid slammed us. All of our area hospitals are full, we can no longer depend on the CDC for truth on anything, and many doctors are sounding the alarm.

We just opened our drive through testing facilities again. We are encouraging telehealth visits instead of in person if at all possible.

Right now Covid, Flu, and RSV are running rampant... However, its this new mystery illness that is really going fucking nuts. In my direct department of 80+ people, I had 24 out with it in one week. Several of those turned into pneumonia .. 2 were hospitalized.

Both me and my wife have had it. It felt like covid... Wife even lost her smell and taste. We both got tested for the usual stuff and it was all negative. Whatever this is, its highly contagious. It doesn't matter what we test for, it comes back negative.

It feels like covid, hard to breathe, but with lots of sinus pressure, congestion, non productive cough, extreme fatigue, and lasts a long time. I took stronger steroids than usual, Methylprednisolone .. Helped a little.. Then about 10 days of antibiotics.. Ended up needing an inhaler for about a month. Same story with my wife, but hers turned into full blown pneumonia.

Watch out for this shit. So far its not too deadly, but the fact is that no one knows what the hell it is. Maybe bird flu or something, but tests are coming back negative. There are plenty of theories out there, with some saying its some new strain of Human Meta pneumonia virus, bird flu, swine flu, and tuberculosis.

The point is, you can no longer trust the CDC or any government health agency and even the media is under reporting it. Its all over the country. Honestly, the biggest killer right now is influenza A.. Its running rampant and resulting in a shit ton of hospitalizations.

Anyways.. Be safe yall!

Also:

2025 Feb 6: Today.com (news): "Flu is so bad right now that schools across the country are closing" (by Caroline Kee):

Schools across the United States are being forced to close due to surges of influenza and other seasonal illnesses. As the 2024–2025 flu season rages on with no peak yet in sight, many school systems are overwhelmed with sick students and staff members.

In the past week, a swath of schools and even entire school districts have announced closures in at least 10 states. These include Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia, and Tennessee, among others.

It's a measure reminiscent of the COVID lockdown era: schools closing their doors — some canceling classes entirely, while others pivot to remote learning — due to widespread illness. However, this time, influenza is the main culprit, and the school closures are short-lived, with most lasting only a few days.

[...]

At the same time, the U.S. is also seeing waves of norovirus, COVID-19 and RSV, which some are calling a “quad-demic.”

“The viral surge we’re seeing now is challenging,” Dr. Torey Mack, the chief medical officer of Children’s Hospital Association, which represents over 200 hospitals nationally, tells TODAY.com.

In addition to overcrowded emergency rooms and doctor's offices, schools are feeling the impact.

[...]

Although the school closures may seem concerning, experts say it’s not surprising to see during an intense wave of illness.

Er, I don't know about you, but I have literally never heard of a school closing due to infectious illness except during the Spanish Flu and Covid – and during both, school closures were incredibly controversial. Certainly I never had a day of school canceled due to a school closing for illness.

Texas

Multiple school districts in Texas shut down last week due to surges in flu and other illnesses.

Godley Independent School District in Godley, Texas, closed after reporting a 30% drop in attendance across their campuses, NBC affiliate NBC5 DFW reported. [...]

Comanche Independent School District in Comanche, Texas, and Morgan Independent School District also closed last week.

"Right now in our area, flu rates are very, very high, and depending on the severity of symptoms, some of these kids have been out of school having fevers for four or five days," Dr. Preeti Sharma, pediatric pulmonologist at Children's Health in Dallas, Texas, tells TODAY.com.

Children's Health has seen a staggering 40% increase in flu cases from the week prior, and Sharma says she's also noticed a large volume of patients with severe symptoms. "For many, the symptoms have been more severe than in the past, and there are some reports of a higher rate of pneumonia with flu more recently," says Sharma. [...]

Ohio

In Ohio, which is experiencing very high flu activity, multiple schools were forced to close this week due to a wave of flu.

“Right now, if you come in here and you’re getting tested for influenza ... over 40% of the time, it’s going to be positive for flu, and that’s super high,” says Newland, who is based in Columbus. [...]

St. Hilary School in Fairlawn, Ohio, temporarily shut down after 20% of students and 15% of staff were out sick, NBC affiliate WKYC 3 Studios in Cleveland reported.

Coventry Local Schools in Northeast Ohio also closed this week, citing a bus driver shortage due to increased seasonal illness. [...]

Tennessee

Tennessee has some of the highest flu levels in the nation. It's overwhelming emergency rooms, as well as schools, says Schaffner, who works in Nashville.

At least three school districts in Middle Tennessee have closed this week due to widespread illness, NBC affiliate WSMV-TV reported. These include Lebanon Special School District, Houston County Schools and Lincoln County Schools. [...]

Georgia

Georgia is another flu hot spot in the Southeast.

Polk School District in Georgia closed all schools and facilities last Friday and Monday due to a surge of flu and norovirus, which sickened 761 students, NBC affiliate WXIA-TV reported. [...]

Virginia

Multiple schools in Virginia have closed in the last week, citing flu outbreaks and staffing shortages.

"Flu levels in Virginia are currently very high. ... Flu infections are particularly impacting children, with nearly 1 in 5 ED visits for children being for flu. In recent weeks, Virginia has reported many large flu outbreaks in schools, daycares, and in long-term care facilities," Dr. Laurie Forlano, state epidemiologist with the Virginia Department of Health, tells TODAY.com in a statement.

Oklahoma

Schools across Oklahoma are moving to virtual learning as flu cases soar among kids, local affiliate KFOR-TV reported.

"Influenza activity in Oklahoma is high and continues to increase, as our influenza-associated hospitalizations reach a historic high. In January, kids under the age of 18 made up just under 60% of our influenza sentinel laboratory testing percent positivity," a spokesperson for the Oklahoma State Department of Health tells TODAY.com in a statement.

Iowa

Schools in Sioux City, Iowa, and Polk County have closed down due to illness, including influenza, according to reports from local NBC affiliates. [...]

Missouri

Multiple school districts in Southeast and Southwest Missouri have closed due to flu and other illnesses, local outlets have reported.

"Data does indicate higher (flu) activity ... with the highest rates among those in the 0-4 and 5-24 years. It is not unusual for there to be more than one cause of illness this time of year. However, the data suggests the increase in seasonal influenza A is a contributing factor," a spokesperson for the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services tells TODAY.com in a statement.

Kentucky

In the Louisville area of Kentucky, Oldham County School District closed for three days after more than 1,700 students, 200 staff members, and 15 bus drivers were absent due to widespread illness.

"The latest data from Kentucky’s respiratory disease dashboard indicate that emergency department (ED) visits related to influenza are increasing and currently account for 15% of all ED visits among pediatric patients," a spokesperson for the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services tells TODAY.com in a statement.

Additionally, schools have closed due to flu and flu-related absences in Alabama, Indiana and other states.

And there was that whole thing about overwhelmed hospitals in China last month that is believed to be HMPV.

Now, the assumption most people, such as the alleged hospital administrator above, are making in response to these local outbreaks is that they must be due to a new virus or virus variant. That is certainly possible – that's what my hopefully forthcoming post will be about.

But the other possibility – and this isn't exclusive – is that we're seeing what I predicted in "Possible Post-COVID Immune Dysregulation & Its Epidemiological Consequences" and part 2 of "The Great Age of Plagues": there is evidence that Covid damages one's immune system, so for some time after one's been infected with Covid, one might be extra vulnerable to other infectious diseases. If that's true, we should expect to see a wave of non-Covid infectious illness following after each wave of Covid.

And what that might look like is not just more people catching more disease. It can also look like people getting more sick from the the infectious diseases they do catch.

And also being more contagious, because contagiousness is typically (and maybe always, but the science isn't in on this) a function of the dose-response relationship, as I explained in "Covid and the Dose-Response Relationship".

Also, for completeness' sake, I'll point out that the overwhelm of institutions may not be as epidemiologically indicative as once it was, because both hospitals are less staffed than they were five years ago due to Covid related deaths, disability, and burnt out and traumatized medical professionals voluntarily leaving the field, as I discussed in Part 2 of The Great Age of Plagues (ibid). I gather something similar is happening in public primary education. So maybe the reason these institutions are reporting being overwhelmed with illness has more to do with being short staffed to begin with, and not because of that much greater a disease burden than every flu season.

In any event, it's looking like now is an excellent time to be masking up.

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