I voted today in a local election. By coincidence, I got the same parking space I'd used when I caucused back in January. I remember it because it was a tight fit and the ground was icy and treacherous that night. Today, I slipped in the mud on a muggy, rainy day. The woman who checked me in and handed me my ballot had also been at the Democratic caucus.

On caucus night, I was surprised by the crowd that came to support Obama. Every election cycle for decades, I've heard that younger voters were finally mobilizing and would make a real difference. I'd stopped believing. But that night it happened, with one of my daughters helping organize the Obama preference group. Later, I wrote, "I'm almost afraid of the optimism I now feel. Yes, my candidate came in second. But the two candidates I think of as the best of the Dem's slate came in first, and the turnout was excellent. Participation is a good thing."

I still remember the expressions of shock on the faces of the Clinton precinct captains when they not only didn't win the greatest number of votes, but came in behind the Edwards group I helped captain. (I do not regret backing Edwards. I joined his campaign even though I doubted he had a chance of winning because I believed he was pushing important items onto the agenda. I still think he changed the focus of the campaign for the better with his emphasis on issues like health care and poverty. Besides, I had some great arguments with my family.)

What pains me is that at the caucus Democrats were talking about having an "embarrassment of riches" in our choice of candidates. Discussion was about issues, not personalities. It hurts that what started out, for me at least, as a cheerful experience in pure democracy turned into such a bitter season.

At the time of the caucus, I still believed Clinton was the likely nominee. I also thought that we would not nominate a black man for president, that we weren't "ready." My daughter told me I was behind the times, that attitudes really have changed. I was never happier to be proved wrong. I don't know if Obama can fix even half the things that have gone wrong, but the fact that he ran such a smart campaign gives me hope he can run a smart administration. The fact that so many people supported his campaign gives me hope that they will also support that administration.

And, damn, it hurts to hope. Cynicism is so much more comfortable.

For now, the drama continues. I've been watching the headlines on TPM Election Central all day. ( Just today, they have posted:Collapse )

In spite of the contradictory statements from the Clinton campaign, it does look like this is finally it, but it will be interesting to see if Hillary concedes by the end of the week or if she just suspends her campaign.

ETA: I just heard that the Clinton campaign is telling the Obama campaign she doesn't want the VP slot, but that he shouldn't pick another woman, because she is the standard bearer for women in the party. This was on MSNBC. I don't know if that's confirmed anywhere. Does anyone have it attributed? I hope it's not true, because that's a kind of egoism that I can not tolerate. There are many strong and successful women in politics, and Clinton is not, to use a fandom term, such a special snowflake as all that.

The first part is here.

( RealignmentCollapse )

( Results by Demographics - my unscientific observationsCollapse )

( Post-Caucus Collapse )
These are my favorite stats from the caucus, because of what they may portend for November. If you take the total turnout, Democratic and Republican, and look to see who had the most support, this is what you get:

Total Iowa Turnout (approximate)
356,000

Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)

I'm betting Obama's lead would have been larger if Dems reported individual vote counts instead of the number of delegates won. These TPM posts explain just how huge this result is in terms of Iowa politics. I'm almost afraid of the optimism I now feel. Yes, my candidate came in second. But the two candidates I think of as the best of the Dem's slate came in first, and the turnout was excellent. Participation is a good thing.

I've been feeling pretty bouncy all day, although not literally because I seem to have acquired a sprained ankle, which I aggravated by climbing on chairs to tape posters to walls last night.

( precaucusCollapse )

( Preference groups in close quartersCollapse )

( 1, 2, 3, 666Collapse )

I spent my day annoying my fellow citizens with "Get out the Vote" calls and attempting to locate a plumber and certain plumbing supplies. (That has echoes of Watergate, but it's a very un-metaphorical bathroom faucet that's the problem. Also, Kohler's has a crappy help line and I have taken a dislike to their IVR.)

When I got home, I checked the Washington Post website, and this was the picture they had chosen to illustrate Mike Hucakbee's final push for the GOP vote:



Whatever you think of Huckabee (and I'll spare you my own thoughts), I hope that's an example of the WaPo editorializing through picture choice. Either that, or now I know why we haven't seen Mrs. Huckabee on the campaign trail much.

Also, the GOP primary field in Buffy villains.

The campaign follies continue. Almost all the campaign ads have taken on a note of hysteria. Oh, and M:TNG-1 shook Obama's hand this afternoon.

Less than 24 hours to go.

The Iowa caucus will finally take place on Thursday. I've been working for Edwards; M:TNG-1 has been working for Obama. People keep saying, "That must make things interesting," but arguing about politics is one of the things this family is about, and both of us agree that either an Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards ticket would be a Good Thing. M:TNG-2 is siding with me, I think. Mr. M, true to form, was changing his mind every hour or so, picking various candidates almost certain not to reach the viability threshold* in our precinct. Then he realized he'll be teaching that night and won't be able to caucus at all unless he arranges a field trip for that class.

We are polled constantly. I don't mind the calls from the campaign workers, who identify themselves as such and ask our first and second choices. They're usually polite and get off the phone quickly unless they're inviting us to an event. Other polls ask only for the first choice and don't identify who commissioned them unless you ask.

( But it wouldn't be a campaign without dirty tricksCollapse )

*( Why polls of caucus-goers don't mean a hell of a lotCollapse )

I know that my participation gives me a bigger voice in who the candidate will be than most people in this country, and I take that seriously. (The debate about how fair that is and what it should be replaced with is also a top conversational topic chez Murchison.) But I will still be very relieved when the candidates pull up stakes and head off to New Hampshire. It's been a long haul. I just hope they head out with the right candidates getting boosts from Thursday's gatherings.

P.S. If you still retain any interest after all that, heres a link to a compilation of Christmas campaign ads. See Hillary wrap some unusual presents! Watch Romney shovel snow and push a scared kid down a hill! Find out why I've been terrified Rudy's going to show up at my door with a fruitcake! And in case you missed it, the Huckabee commercial starring Chuck Norris that will go down in history, no matter what happens to his campaign.