RESEARCH

Announced low-carbon investments by oil and gas firms have fallen sharply so far in 2023. The latest data from Energy Intelligence's Low-Carbon Investment Tracker, accompanying the recently published report, covers investments, acquisitions and initiatives announced or approved up to the end of Q2'23.

How We Think About Oil Price Bands Ahead

The energy trilemma – energy security, sustainability and affordability – was front and center at last month’s LNG2023 conference in Vancouver. Several LNG sellers offered a solution to the affordability challenge that is not as simple as it appears. On the energy security front, we have watched closely to see how Chinese demand could impact the global LNG trade this year. Yet, another country could be particularly impactful in H2’23. Finally, we turn our attention to Adnoc, where Asia continues to loom large despite European strategy goals.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment this quarter and beyond. Gabon’s coup and Ecuadorian election results, including the referendum banning some Amazon oil production, are examined in depth. Cyprus’s Aphrodite plan rejection and Russia’s motor fuel export ban as well as other key aboveground risk drivers are also covered. Geopolitically, the growing spillover risks from coups and instability in the Sahel is a key focus area, alongside other developments such as Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, China’s economic slowdown and easing Iran tensions. Meanwhile, resource nationalism and interstate tensions are growing transition risk drivers.

The pace and variety of upstream resource offerings appears to be waning, with only a handful of new rounds on the horizon. However, with key frontier rounds recently concluded, such as in Guyana and Israel and Lebanon, a number of company awards are imminent and may point to future activity. In Brazil, the government expects to make awards in December from its open round system. The narrower set of new round offerings, relative to announced intentions, may reflect government uncertainty in maximizing investor interest amid macroeconomic and transition concerns.