Good Service

The New York Times on Sunday, 7 August 2011, had an article about where travellers can expect to find the best service. Japan was rated as the best, followed by Thailand, Canada and New Zealand.

The UAE came in 5^th in the entire world of tourist destinations!

(For those who plan to visit, the article says one should tip 10% throughout the UAE. I have no idea where or how they came up with that 10%.)

Ramadan (1432 AH) is Coming

In the Islamic (or Al Hijri) calendar, this month is called Shaban, the month before Ramadan.

When I first arrived in the UAE, and several times since, I was told that the rulers decide when to have Ramadan, and can vary the date of the start and stop by as much as a week (or more). This, it turned out, was, as Nixon would have said, 'inoperative.'

Every Islamic month is either 29 or 30 days, since the Islamic month is a lunar month. On the 29th of every month, the Moonsighting Committee goes out. If it sees a crescent moon (called a hilal), the next day is the first day of the next month. If it does not, the next day is the 30th of the current month. This is of critical importance only three times a year: on the 29th of Shaban, when the Moonsighting Committee decides when Ramadan starts, on the 29th of Ramadan, when the Moonsighting Committee decides when Ramadan ends, and on the 29th of Dhu'l-Qa'dah, when the report of the Moonsighting Committee determines the days of the Hajj.

On the 29th of the month of Rajab (which was on 1 July), the Moonsighting Committee went out and saw the moon, so 2 July was 1 Shaban.

This means that 30 July 2011 will be 29 Shaban 1432, and the Moonsighting Committee will go out. If they see the crescent moon, then 31 July will be 1 Ramadan; if they don't, then 1 August will be the first of Ramadan. Ramadan must start either 31 July or 1 August, it cannot start any other day, but (officially) there is absolutely no way to predict if Ramadan will start on 31 July or 1 August, it all depends on what the Moonsighting Committee sees on 30 July.

However, all my sources say it has been decided that, on 30 July, when an excited person runs up and says, 'I saw it, I saw it!!!' (and he will, because there is a monetary award for the first person to see the hilal that marks the start of Ramadan) the senior members of the Moonsighting Committee will say, 'We are sorry, my son, but you are mistaken.' So 31 July will be 30 Shaban, and Ramadan will start on 1 August.

Of course, my sources could all be wrong. The Moonsighting committee is supposed to report whatever it actually sees.

So we'll only be certain on 30 July whether Ramadan starts 30 July or 1 August.

Father's Day, 2011

When my father was dying, he admitting cheating people when he first started in business, and he was in terror of what the afterlife would bring him in retribution.

But, when I was born, he became scrupulously honest, and, by being scrupulously honest, he made a small fortune.

Of course, as I discovered after his death, like the overwhelming majority of people who make a small fortune, he had made his small fortune by starting with a big one.

Still, unlike most of his competitors, my father never cheated anyone from the day I was born until the day he died, so I hope his sins--all committed before I was born--were forgiven him.

Grand Burstin Hotel Employment Scam

I was riding in a taxi with a driver I use regularly, and he asked me to help him. He'd been offered a 'job' working for the Grand Burstin Hotel as a driver. There really is a Grand Burstin Hotel in the UK, and, according to its website, it is a seaside hotel with rooms including meals starting at just £35 for a single (which is cheap enough that I'd consider staying there if I happened to be in Folkestone). The offer seemed to be on official hotel letterhead with the stamp and signature of a manager.

The offer letter said they would help him get a visa and work permit, and would pay a salary of £3,700 plus room and board. I figured, 'OK. A UK hotel wants to get an Indian driver for £3,700 plus free room and board, and that's a lot less than they'd have to pay a British driver.' So I told him I thought it was legitimate. Then he pointed out that the salary was monthly. So £44,400 plus room and board for a driver. Not b*&%£ likely.

They sent him a picture of what looked like a real UK work permit with his name and photograph (at least to someone who's never seen a real UK work permit), and a picture of a letter saying that the work permit was being held by Inland Revenue and he had to pay £650 to get it released. And, again, the photo of the letter from the Inland Revenue looked like it was on official Inland Revenue letterhead.

Only, of course, the work permit is NOT from UK immigration and the letter demanding £650 is NOT from Inland Revenue.

Further checking showed that there are more than 60,000 ads about 'Jobs available at the Grand Burstin Hotel' posted on the Internet, many posted on bulletin boards that are not intended for employment postings, and none of which has the slightest connection with the real Grand Burstin Hotel.

The new and improved RTA promotional campaign

I haven't written much lately, since this blog is about aspects of the Middle East that seem strange to a Westerner. Not bad, not worse than the West, just different.

And, since the worldwide crash, things in Dubai have looked about like a Western crash. So nothing for DubaiatRandom to report.

But yesterday, I was on one of the new RTA buses.

During the boom, back in '07-'08, it was very hard to get around Dubai. The traffic was terrible for those with cars, and, when the car reached its destination, there was no place to park. Taxis seemed eligible for CITES. And the buses were always full and sped past since they could take no more passengers.

So the RTA used the boom money to order a massive new fleet, but the new fleet didn't arrive until after the crash.

The combination of the new buses and the crash means that one can get around Dubai very well using the buses and the metro. I can usually find a seat (or at least some polite young person who insists on giving me his), and the new buses and the metro are very comfortable, and I can read and relax instead of worrying about traffic. And, as Dubai made a big deal about in '07, most bus stops have shelters, some of which have working A/Cs that keep the shelters at 22 degrees (that's 72º for Americans). Which is nice, since, in the afternoon, it's now 45 degrees in the shade. Of which there isn't any. (That's 113 for Americans.)

One feature of the new buses is that they all have TVs.

But, since the crash, there hasn't been money to hook up all of the TVs in the new buses, so many buses have three or four TVs that sit showing nothing except the screen saver with just the RTA logo.

Yesterday, I got on a bus that had working TVs running a strange programme: 'Try the Dubai buses.'

It was a loop showing animated buses running all over Dubai, with signs, 'The most efficient way to get around Dubai. Try it.'

So, as I rode the bus, I was constantly urged to ride the bus, or at least to give it a try.

This is like a nondescript shop with a flashing neon sign in the very back of the shop asking people to please come in.

I occasionally ride with friends in their cars, and I haven't seen any ads aimed at the people in cars urging them to try the buses.

Only the ads running in that one bus, ads aimed at the RTA bus riders urging them to please try the RTA buses.

Farook's Decline

I once knew a man named Robert who was good at making money from real estate. 'First,' Robert said, 'find a rapidly rising real-estate market. Then find someone who owns property but has no idea what it's really worth. Offer them enough they think you're overpaying, and they can't afford to refuse, but not so much that they get suspicious. Of course, your offer is much, much less than the property is really worth, and you sell the property a little below actual market value before you actually pay the sellers.' But Farook didn't understand any of this: he tried to find someone who'd sell him property for half its real value, so he could then re-sell for 90% of its real value and make a fortune. I tried and tried to tell him this wouldn't work without some modifications, but he wouldn't listen, and he never sold a single property.

Meanwhile, the laid-back landlords of Dubai all disappeared. Farook was leasing flats for $500 a month when market rates were $1,000, then subleasing them for $850 + 5% commission. But the landlords finally saw that Dubai prices were booming, and raised the rent to $1,000.

Farook tried some 'bait and switch' tactics: he'd show someone a $2,000 a month flat, then get them to sign a lease on the now $1,000 a month flat paying $1,500. He made money one time, but he lost that tenant's future business. And the tenant told his friends, 'Don't go to Farook.'

Farook considers himself an honest man: he always gave the tenant a flat, unlike some crooks who'd show a flat when they had nothing, take the tenants' money, and ride off into the desert leaving the tenant with nothing. Farook never did that. But, at the end, the flats the tenants ended up with were NOT the flats the tenants expected. But at least there was always a flat, and all Farook's customers had a place to live.

---

My old friend Robert complained that, after a boom, real estate prices would fall back to normal, but it was impossible to make money: buyers, seeing the decline, wanted to pay less than market, and sellers, thinking of the halcyon past, still had no idea of the current market, but now wanted much more than market. So, after making money for a few years, Robert had to suffer through long dry spells. But at least Robert knew just what he was doing, unlike Farook.

And Robert's Rules apply to Dubai:

The Dubai landlords who once asked $500 for a $1,000 market-value flat now ask $1,000 for a $500 market-value flat.

And Farook hasn't rented out a flat for two years.

---

So now Farook has a job trying to preserve the Arabic language, at the behest of a Sheikh. The Sheikh founded an institute, but after the initial funding, provides no support. The A/Cs in the institute have mostly failed, and there's no money for maintenance. Which is OK now, but will be a major problem come summer. And, while the Sheikh asked Farook to help preserve the Arabic language, the Sheikh seems to think Farook will do this out of sense of obligation to the language, not as an actual paying job.

Farook: Fall from Zenith, Part I

As I mentioned recently, I met Farook at the zenith of his career. I do not think of Farook as a great salesman: a great salesman can sell someone something they don't want, don't need, and can't afford.

In his prime, Farook was like the sausage millionaire in the very old movie, 'Palm Beach Story.' The sausage millionaire saw a sad young man and offered to help. The millionaire said he'd give the young man the answer to any question except where to buy sausage. Apparently, the sausage millionaire had found a supplier who sold sausages of better quality at lower prices than his competitors, so the sausage millionaire didn't need to be a great salesman, his sausages sold themselves.

Farook found flats renting for half of market rents, partly because of laid back landlords, and partly because there were informal rent controls. Then Farook would sublease the flats for 85% of market rates, then lease them for half of market rates (always in that order, so Farook wouldn't be risking any of his own money). It was a win-win-win situation, with the landlord, without doing any promotion or anything else, getting money for a formerly empty flat, the tenant getting a flat for 85% of market, and Farook getting 75% more from subleasing the flat than he'd paid to lease it, for quite a nice commission.

Then two things happened: the first was freehold. This hurt Farook, who blamed his father: 'My father tell me, if you must drive nail and you have big hammer and little hammer, always use big hammer and drive nail with one blow, no little hammer and must make many blows.'

So Farook hoped to find a freehold villa he could sell for $1.85 million and then buy for $1 million, making a quick $850,000, or about 8 ½ year's income from leasing. I tried, without success, to explain that the market, marketing, pricing, and everything else is completely different between leasing and selling. But he never listened. 'What you know? I selling for 15 years, you never work as salesman.' But he never sold a villa.

Farook tried to sell a school in Sharjah, but without success. The owner wanted $10 million; Farook was asking $4 million. I have no idea what he had in mind, since he tells me he never cheated anyone.

In Dubai, it was once common to find people who would lease a posh villa and a posh office and pay for three months, then sublease the villa from the office. These con-men would sublease the villa for 70% of the actual rental, but to 20 people, demanding a full year in advance in order to qualify for the 30% discount. Once they'd leased the villa twenty times, they'd leave Dubai, and the renters would be out their entire payment. Farook never did anything like that, so I'd say he was more than 75% honest.

Of course, had anyone given Farook $4 million to buy that $10 million school, he would have either explained that foreigners can't buy, the $4 million was just for a three year lease, or he would have sold the buyer a different, $2 million school. But no one bought, and Farook wasted a lot of time.

I tried to help: a lady from the UK said she represented some investors who wanted to buy a school, but she needed the contract, blueprints, and all the other stuff that goes with a $10 million property. 'You think Britania. This Dubai. Dubai not like Britania, here we no need paper. I take you to see school.'

I tried to tell Farook, 'Just give her the papers,' but he told me just what he told the British lady.

Farook had found tenants for his apartments, given them the details to sign, they'd taken the details home, then gone directly to the landlord and gotten the flat for what the owner was asking, cutting Farook out completely. So he stopped giving any documents to prospective tenants. But tenants are not like buyers. And Farook hadn't bothered to get copies of the paperwork, because he wanted someone to hand him $4 million in cash without anything in writing.

But no one ever did. The British lady eventually gave up on Farook and stopped answering his calls. And he never managed to sell a school.

So the freehold caused Farook to waste a lot of time trying to sell freehold, without having any idea about how to do it, since it is not at all like leasing. And his business began to decline.

And soon he had another problem.