No surprise. We returned from a 10 day holiday on Cyprus (a pleasant 35 minute flight) to find that prime minister designate Benyamin Netanyahu is still at work putting together a coalition that can muster majority support of the Knesset.

Tzipi Livni's Kadima Party won more seats in the election, but the center of gravity was clearly to the right of center. She could not form a coalition, while Bibi has two principal options: a centrist coalition between Likud and Kadima, along with Labor or other moderate parties; or a rightest coalition without Kadima or Labor. At this writing, he is still exploring his options, i.e., what the party leaders in the various combinations are demanding with respect to ministerial appointments and public policies. Livni is holding out for what Netanyahu is not likely to give her (a rotation with her as prime minister for two years), so something to the right appears more likely. That seems easy, but it is not over until each potential partner defines its terms, the prime minister designate agrees, and each of the partners accepts what each other will receive.

A group of political scientists putting together a volume on the election asked me to write an article on corruption as it figured in the campaign and the voting. The same group published a volume on the 2003 election, and included a chapter that I wrote on corruption. I would be pleased to send anyone who asks a full copy of my 2003 article and/or my draft for 2009. Here I will touch on some of the highlights.

Most problematic is the concept of "corruption."

It depends on time and locality, and the political cultures of different groups. What is tolerated in one setting can be condemned as unacceptable at another time, elsewhere, or even by close neighbors. Concepts of legality and corruption are related, but not identical. If it is within popular norms, an action can be illegal, but not viewed widely as corrupt. Or an action that is formally legal can be shunned as corrupt. Dictionaries use the following terms in their numerous definitions: spoiled, unwholesome, loathsome, putrid, tainted, evil, perverted, incorrect, and deteriorated. Involved in corruption are issues of financial irregularity, bribery, theft, deception, improper sex, and other personal behaviors considered to be immoral.

Tzipi Livni made an issue of her own freedom from corruption, and emphasized the unreliability of her major opponent, Benyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu. According to her ads, "Bibi? I don't believe him."

Corruption was prominent in the run up to the 2009 election, just as it had been in the run up to the 2006 election. In both cases, it did not determine the outcome.

Why not? is a tantalizing question, with several answers.

In 2006 and 2009, dramatic events affected the national agenda. In 2006, it was Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's illness. Insofar as Sharon was associated with some of the major probes into corruption, his tragic departure helped to remove the whole subject from the campaign. Ehud Olmert benefited from a "honeymoon" with the voters, without having the suspicions about him become a major issue.

Investigations of increasing severity into Olmert's activities highlighted the issue of corruption in 2008. His resignation lessened his impact on the 2009 campaign, even though he remained in office, police investigations against him continued, and there were proceedings against other politicians. The military operation in Gaza may have been even more important in blunting corruption as an election issue. The major parties suspended campaigning during the fighting, and began again only three weeks before the voting. National security was central to the campaigns of all major parties.

Prominent in 2009 were charges that Netanyahu was a chronic deceiver, beyond the hyperbole usually associated with politics. Media commentators compared what he actually said in past years with what he claimed that he said, as well as documenting his earlier predictions and promises that never came to pass.

The whopper in Netanyahu's career--recalled by the Livni campaign as well as by media personalities--was the claim that he was offered the post of Finance Minister by the Italian government due to his success in reforming the Israeli economy. There were also reports that he authored a book, which was printed and bound, but would not be released until sometime after the election. Speculation was that it described his actions in cutting welfare payments, which clashed with what he was promising to potential coalition partners.

Corruption also figured in the campaigns aimed against Avigdor Lieberman and his Israel Beitenu (Israel Our Home) party. Shortly before the voting, the police renewed investigations into improper financial dealings that had been going on for close to a decade. They grilled Lieberman's daughter, his party's campaign manager, and other aides, and confined some of them to house arrest. Centrist and left-of-center parties also accused Lieberman of inciting racism, and being beyond the moral pale due to his campaigns against Israeli Arabs.
The best evidence for the failure of corruption to influence the election appears in the votes of Likud and Israel Beitenu. Some of Netanyahu's votes may have come from people who had trouble with his reliability, but who voted for him due to other reasons. Likud's poll increased from 12 seats after the 2006 election to 27 seats. Despite renewed investigations against Lieberman, his party increased its poll from 11 seats in 2006 to 15. An anti-establishment element in Lieberman's appeal may actually have worked to increase his poll when the police came knocking at his party's door. Livni's campaign emphasized her rejection of the improprieties in the record of Ehud Olmert. She stressed her concern with principles rather than personal gain, and ridiculed the Netanyahu's lack of candor. While standing four-square against corruption, she led the Kadima party to only 28 seats. It is slated to be the largest party in the Knesset, but will be one seat short of what it won in 2006 under Olmert.

Corruption may have failed to influence Israeli voters in 2006 and 2009 because they are inured to a level of misbehavior that is arguably moderate. Charges in both 2006 and 2009 dealt with what might be called petty thievery (with quarrels possible over the label "petty"), violations of campaign finance regulations, and appointing political allies to government positions. Police and prosecutors were strained to raise serious charges of bribery, where large sums change hands and produced major government decisions in favor of those providing the money.

The Israeli public may accept that improprieties are chronic, but not so severe that they dominate national campaigns.

Transparency International ranks Israel 30th among 179 countries on its scale of perceived corruption. It scores more corrupt than most Western European countries, as well as Canada, the United States, Australia, and Japan, but less corrupt than the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Greece, Poland, and virtually all countries of the Third World. However, there is no indication in the organization's report that its informants are sufficiently informed about governance in enough countries in order to provide reliable scores.

The United States provides an appropriate comparison for Israel. It is the biggest, the richest, and most powerful democracy, and often is the standard that Israelis employ when judging their own activities.
While Israelis were getting ready to vote in the 2009 election, Americans had just finished with an administration whose president and vice president were said to have committed widespread violations of civil rights. The losing candidate for vice president in the election of 2008 was investigated for the improper use of a public office in order to pursue a personal vendetta. In the first month of the new administration, one nominee for a Cabinet position withdrew his candidacy due to charges of impropriety as governor of New Mexico, another Cabinet nominee and a candidate for another senior position withdrew due to problems of tax evasion. The nominee for Treasury Secretary received Senate confirmation, despite the fact that his case of tax evasion seemed no less severe than others which provoked withdrawals. Substantial populations in both Israel and the United States feel that their regimes are corrupt because they tolerate homosexuality and abortions. The sexual issues associated with President Moshe Katsav were not clearly more problematical than those associated with Presidents Bill Clinton or John Kennedy.

Commentators in both Israel and the United States link alienation and non-voting to animosity toward politics and politicians. "They are all the same," "You cannot believe any of them," and "My vote won't change anything" are among the reasons that people give for not voting.

Whatever the public's feelings about corruption, they are bound to compete with other issues in a national campaign. In Israel's election of 2009, national security and the impact of the spreading economic crisis appeared to be more prominent. Various notions of corruption may have been important to some voters, and may have led other citizens to avoid voting. Feelings about corruption may explain some of the vote given to Tzipi Livni. In light of the votes given to Benyamin Natanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman, however, we cannot consider corruption to have been a decisive issue