Chinese modernization has become a buzzword in international politics. Under the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC), China argues that its modernization follows the trajectory of socialist development. It is applying Marxist principles and its historical experiences, introducing a new model of human civilization and promoting human development. Nobel Prize winner Michael Spence articulates that Chinese-style modernization offers developing states another model for achieving industrial development and economic growth. The question remains: where does Pakistan stand in Chinese modernization?
CPEC 2.0 presents a massive opportunity for Pakistan to move towards industrialization and modernization. The first phase of CPEC focused on road infrastructure and the energy sector. CPEC 2.0 is prioritizing infrastructure projects as well as technology, innovation, sustainability, economic transformation and inclusive growth. Arguably, the future belongs to innovation and the knowledge economy. Luckily, CPEC 2.0 paves the way for innovation and is structured around the 5Es framework: export, e-Pakistan, energy, environment and equity.
China’s success in poverty reduction lies in Special Economic Zones (SEZs), digital transformation, renewable energy and technological advancement. The first SEZ in China was built in Shenzhen in the 1980s, which now contributes more than $550 billion annually to the national GDP. Shenzhen’s SEZ is the miracle of this century. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s total GDP is about $380 billion. By applying a proactive approach, Islamabad can learn from China how to expedite work on SEZs under CPEC 2.0 to move towards industrialization. To strengthen the knowledge economy and Digital Pakistan, the country is supposed to coordinate with China on digital transformation, 5G infrastructure, AI, biotechnology, technology parks and fintech. CPEC 2.0 is highly likely to improve social inclusion, agricultural modernization, skills development, education, healthcare and green energy initiatives. Such initiatives, by and large, will ensure economic growth benefiting common people.
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing 23 per cent to GDP and employing 37.4 per cent of the national labour force. China imports almost $140 billion worth of agricultural products annually. Surprisingly, Pakistan’s share of agricultural exports to China is merely $2.4 billion. China is the world’s largest exporting and importing market. Thus, Pakistan needs to focus on selected high-demand products for the Chinese market. The country’s agricultural productivity cannot compete with regional competitors, requiring agricultural modernization. Pakistan’s average wheat yield is 2,400 to 2,500 kg per acre.
On the other hand, India achieves 4,500 to 5,000 kg per acre. Higher wheat yields require modern farming technologies and high-yield seeds. In this regard, collaboration with China in biotechnology, seed genetics, precision farming and modern agricultural research would enhance production. China’s headway in agricultural biology and seed development could improve Pakistan’s crop yields. Education and farmer training for agricultural modernization should be promoted. Modern machinery, financial literacy, farmer skill development, technology adoption programmes, rainwater harvesting and drip irrigation are crucial in this regard. Dr. Irem Batool says, “Climate-smart agriculture and climate-resilient crops for long-term food security are essential for Pakistan.” Balochistan, the largest province of Pakistan in terms of land, possesses 11.77 million acres of uncultivated land, an area equal to Switzerland and can transform the province as far as agricultural modernization is concerned. Irrigation modernization, olive cultivation, agri-zones and agri-exports under CPEC Phase 2.0 would transform the province. More than 70 per cent of the people of the province still reside in rural areas and are dependent on the agriculture and livestock sectors. Modernizing the above-mentioned sectors will do miracles for rural agricultural growth, prosperity and employment generation, resulting in a reduction in militancy and bolstering social stability in Balochistan.
Though Pakistan contributes only 1 per cent to global greenhouse gas emissions, it is the seventh most affected country by climate change. Alarmingly, climate change is predicted to reduce Pakistan’s GDP by up to one-fifth by mid-century. The 2022 floods alone caused losses of $32 billion, damaged years of development and threatened to weaken the benefits of CPEC-related growth. It augurs well for Pakistan that China has emerged as a global leader in renewable energy and in promoting the Green Belt and Road Initiative. By initiating climate diplomacy with China, Pakistan will be able to obtain Chinese green technologies. Climate diplomacy will serve as a strategic tool to secure green technology, climate finance, technology transfer and resilience support, resulting in climate concerns being hardwired into broader economic and security cooperation. China is already a global leader in electric vehicles (EVs). It can modernize Pakistan’s transport sector and reduce transportation costs. CPEC Phase 2.0 needs to focus on decarbonization. It requires shifting from coal-based projects to renewable energy initiatives.
The future of a nation lies in industrialization. Pakistan, as a middle power, has the potential to emerge as an industrialized nation, which will further strengthen its economic and military prowess. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) states that SEZ-driven reindustrialization might generate two million direct and indirect jobs in the near future. Replicating China’s industrial modernization through technology licensing, SEZ-based export platforms and joint venture models would move the country towards global value chains rather than remaining just a supplier of raw materials. When it comes to industrialization, Balochistan once again becomes an important province, where nearly 70 per cent of the country’s minerals are located. In Phase 2, the province’s rare earth potential can be harnessed by linking mineral extraction with technology transfer, industrial processing, SEZ-based manufacturing and Gwadar-centred export connectivity. In short, Pakistan’s progress will depend less on Chinese commitments and more on its capacity to capitalize on CPEC Phase 2.0. This will require reinforcing institutional reforms, inclusive industrialization and climate-resilient development, which will definitely improve the lives of the people.
The writer is an expert on regional politics and Balochistan. ([email protected]
