Excellent and eye opening book. Everyone should read this.

First off, I liked this book. At a visceral level, the writer understands the concept he's writing about and attacks it at it's most basic level. However, he's missing the science, data and rationale behind his assertions and thesis. I'm a senior officer in the military that deals with the issues he describes daily and "get his ideas", but realized it's missing a fundamental part of the story. What's the exact nexus of overconfidence and no-confidence and how do we calibrate ourselves and organizations to find the sweet spot. I hope he puts out another version of the book and digs into this fundamental shortcoming of the book.

I'd buy the next version and, even though I'm criticizing parts of his work, I appreciate what he wrote and understand what he's driving towards.

Don is a gifted writer. I honestly have very little interest in this topic in general as it doesn't really have much application to the field of medicine. However, I did enjoy reading it. I would compare him favorably with Malcolm Gladwell in his ability to explain scientific (though business psychology may be considered a soft science by some) in understandable prose. His exercises and examples are interesting.

I do fear he may alienate some of his readers who claim a religious faith with a sentence on the top of page 50.

I especially liked the example he gave of Al Franken's staff telling Franken he was being an a--hole during a congressional hearing.

I wonder if Don has enough intellectual diversity on his staff to do the same. As I interpret his paragraph on page 50, he lumps Harold Camping, a dubious "Christian" leader who unsuccessfully predicted the end of the world, with others who claim a religious faith. These would include Malcolm Gladwell, Dostoevsky, Tim Keller, Thomas Aquinas, Augustine, NT Wright, Gregor Mendel, Georges Lemaitre, Blaise Pascal, Robert Barron...and the list goes on. Don is a gifted and intelligent writer who should know better than to use a straw man like Harold Camping to contrast religion with science. I think he might agree they are trying to answer very different questions.

Other than that, I really enjoyed this book.

I liked that he did not dumb down the science too much. I was also surprised to find out that women can be just as overconfident as men. I would have guessed men would be more overconfident but Don's data shows otherwise. I like it when good science proves my preconceived ideas as wrong.

I look forward to reading anything by Don Moore.

I've been a fan of Don Moore's overconfidence research for ages, and am so excited for his first book--big ideas, rich research, funny stories, interactive challenges, crisp writing... what's not to like?!

Moore is the world's leading expert on confidence in judgments and decision making, and he brings together many other people's work--classics and new work--along with his own in this engaging piece. NB this isn't a fluffy self-help book on bolstering your self esteem, but there IS plenty of practical advice (and fun challenges) along with the research and business and political anecdotes. And you'll learn plenty of insights that are not at all obvious. Here's a taste from Chp 5:

"As for me, I think it is a mistake to be results oriented. That’s not because I think leaders should necessarily spend more time going drinking and singing karaoke with their employees. I am convinced that leaders can get better results by being less results oriented. If being results oriented means you reward successful results and punish failures, you will wind up rewarding luck, incentivizing caution, penalizing the unlucky, and discouraging well-intentioned risk taking."

Now that you've read this, you know it's true. But did you before, really?

Not only is Don Moore the leading expert on overconfidence, but he shares his knowledge by sharing digestible and fun-to-read stories; great combination. Don is a great writer and the concepts are so important that it's on my fall syllabus for the undergrad class I teach. Facts and accuracy matter now more than ever. Students and profs alike desperately need this book (and everyone in between - I bought each of my family members a copy too!)

My review title says it all. Recommended!

p.s. Below please find some favorite passages of mine to help your purchase decision. Hope it helps.

Overconfidence further earns its title as the mother of all biases by giving the other decision making biases teeth. It is a gateway bias. Pg23

Karl Popper argued that testing your beliefs requires you to ask, “Is my hypothesis false?” “What evidence is there that could disprove my hypothesis?” pg51

Ask yourself what information would help you form more accurate judgments, and then search out that information. Considering the opposite is useful for both reducing your confidence and raising your accuracy. When people force themselves to explicitly consider and estimate the probability that they might be wrong, it brings down the confidence they attach to being right and simultaneously brings their beliefs closer to the truth. Pg56

Good managers are right a lot. People who are right a lot change their minds a lot. They seek to disconfirm their most profoundly held convictions, which is very unnatural for humans. - Jeff Bezos pg56

Bidders are most likely to bid too much when they enter an auction without thinking ahead about the maximum bids and alternative uses for their money. “Auction Fever’ pg133

“Whether” choices tend to neglect opportunity costs. Instead, you ought to be making “which” decisions by choosing from the full set of possible alternatives. Pg134

“Premortem Analysis” – it is an invitation to reflect on the potential for failure and to consider how to prevent it. (Defensive Pessimism). Pg 144

Invert, always invert. – Charlie Munger Pg147

Backcast – an analysis that begins at the desired end state and works backward. Pg150

After Dalio’s catastrophic failure in 1982, he built a culture at Bridgewater which advocated radical transparency in the search for truth. His goal was to create an idea meritocracy in which the best ideas, supported by the best evidence, would rise to the top. Pg166

When you confront a smart person who disagrees with you, you cant both be right. What, exactly, is the heart of the issue on which you disagree? What are the assumptions underlying your differing beliefs? Considering others’ perspectives opens up your mind to consider the ways in which you might be wrong and to critically examine the evidence for your beliefs. Pg167

Perfectly Confident was excellent with many good examples and advise on how to have the correct amount of confidence, not too much or too little. Either too much or too little confidence will lead one to make bad decisions.

Well written and has advise and information everyone should know.

The book summary is definitely a good summary of the book. It was an easy read which is exactly what I was looking for.

nothing special ..rather boring .

Stimulating read with advice that resonates. A must-read for people wanting to recalibrate confidence.