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Stephen Blank

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I am an internationally recognized expert on Russian foreign and defense policies. I also write and speak extensively on international security and energy issues and cover European and Asian security. I've also appeared on media in the U.S. South America, Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, and Australia

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Delphine Pagès-El Karoui

INALCO Paris

Tatiana Croisier

Université de Liège htpp

Sciences Po, Paris

Sciences Po Bordeaux

University of Warsaw

Sciences Po, Paris

Clémence Gaioni

Sciences Po Grenoble

Ugur Baran Kaya

EHESS-Ecole des hautes études en sciences sociales

Corentin Brustlein

Ifri

Catherine Mercier-Suissa

Interests

Uploads

Drafts by Stephen Blank

Journal of Policy and strategy, 2024

BLANK Two Theaters but One War v.3 FINAL (4)

journal of Policy and Strategy, 2024

The two wars in ukraine are different theaters of war but the war is one. Thus this essay takes ... more

Af2023octblank1 (1) (1)

Asan forum, 2023

This examines Russian views of Russo-Asian policy towards China and India

Russian Nuclear Policy After Ukraine

fpri.org

The War against Ukraine and Russia's Position in Europe's Security Order

https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/war-against-ukraine-and-russias-position-europes-security-order, 2023

This paper addressees the question of what place should Russia have in a future European order. H... more This paper addressees the question of what place should Russia have in a future European order. However, under the present conditions of the Russian aggression in Ukraine it simply is impossible to conceive of any order that could accommodate Russia. Indeed, this paper argues that due to its aggression in Ukraine, Russia has actually excluded itself from any European security order. Reintegrating it into any such order must await Ukraine's victory and regime change in Russia which can only be undertaken by the Russian people, not the West.

Liberalism's Puzzle: The Russo-Chinese Alliance in the Light of Russian Aggression against Ukraine

Korea Journal Of Defense Analysis, 2022

Sino-Russian relations evidently present a puzzle or quandary to foreign observers. In the wake o... more Sino-Russian relations evidently present a puzzle or quandary to foreign observers. In the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, China has opted decisively to offer Russia limited but substantial political and informational support. But it has continued joint drills and exercises with Russia. The argument presented here states initial that despite an equivocation, these actions reveal that this relationship amounts to a de facto alliance of the two governments. The article begins with an analysis of China's reaction to the war in Ukraine, proceeds to discuss the issue of the nature of this relationship and the view that it is an alliance, and then proceeds to discuss the benefits of this alliance to both sides in regard to their defense industrial sectors and for China in regard to Taiwan.

)”Power In Evidence: The International Maritime Rivalry In the Red Sea,” https://trendsresearch.org/insight/power-in-evidence-the-international-maritime-rivalry-in-the-red-sea/, November 18, 2022

trends, 2022

Russian Nuclear Strategy in the Ukraine War: An Interim Report

NIPP , Information Series, 2022

This is an examination of how Moscow has used its nuclear arsenal from the inception of the war a... more

Korea 1 2021 document

The Silence of the Dragon: What Role is China Playing in Korea

Global Asia, 2021

SUMMARY BOX: Given the current stalemate in negotiations between the US and North Korea, China’s ... more SUMMARY BOX: Given the current stalemate in negotiations between the US and North Korea, China’s position is of paramount importance. With both Russia and China seemingly united on wanting to see major – and unrealistic – US concessions ahead of serious talks on denuclearization, Washington’s options are limited. For Beijing, writes Stephen Blank, North Korea is seen primarily through the prism of its competition with Washington and following the flurry of ultimately futile summits between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, this appears to be a position of de facto support by Beijing for Pyongyang’s continued nuclearization. This does not bode well for the region or the new Biden administration.

Guide to Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Great-Power Competition

Guide to Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Great-Power Competition, 2020

A Macdonald-Laurier Institute Publication

Russian policy in the Arctic is not as benign as usually presented

Africa 3 2019 esd

European security & Defence, 2020

ES&D 10 2019 11 15 S. Blank

Euorpean Secuirty & Defence, 2019

The New Potemkin Village: Russia in the Far East

eurasia daily monitor , 2019

The Russian Military in Contemporary Perspective

The Russian Military in Contemporary Perspective, 2019

Kei jointus-korea 2019 190724 final digital

Joint US-Korea Academic Studies, 2019

ESD 06 2019 22 26 Blank

European Security & Defence, 2019

ESD 06 2019 22 26 Blank

Central Asia-1-2018.docx

Journal of Policy and strategy, 2024

BLANK Two Theaters but One War v.3 FINAL (4)

journal of Policy and Strategy, 2024

The two wars in ukraine are different theaters of war but the war is one. Thus this essay takes ... more

Af2023octblank1 (1) (1)

Asan forum, 2023

This examines Russian views of Russo-Asian policy towards China and India

Russian Nuclear Policy After Ukraine

fpri.org

The War against Ukraine and Russia's Position in Europe's Security Order

https://www.iai.it/en/pubblicazioni/war-against-ukraine-and-russias-position-europes-security-order, 2023

This paper addressees the question of what place should Russia have in a future European order. H... more This paper addressees the question of what place should Russia have in a future European order. However, under the present conditions of the Russian aggression in Ukraine it simply is impossible to conceive of any order that could accommodate Russia. Indeed, this paper argues that due to its aggression in Ukraine, Russia has actually excluded itself from any European security order. Reintegrating it into any such order must await Ukraine's victory and regime change in Russia which can only be undertaken by the Russian people, not the West.

Liberalism's Puzzle: The Russo-Chinese Alliance in the Light of Russian Aggression against Ukraine

Korea Journal Of Defense Analysis, 2022

Sino-Russian relations evidently present a puzzle or quandary to foreign observers. In the wake o... more Sino-Russian relations evidently present a puzzle or quandary to foreign observers. In the wake of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, China has opted decisively to offer Russia limited but substantial political and informational support. But it has continued joint drills and exercises with Russia. The argument presented here states initial that despite an equivocation, these actions reveal that this relationship amounts to a de facto alliance of the two governments. The article begins with an analysis of China's reaction to the war in Ukraine, proceeds to discuss the issue of the nature of this relationship and the view that it is an alliance, and then proceeds to discuss the benefits of this alliance to both sides in regard to their defense industrial sectors and for China in regard to Taiwan.

)”Power In Evidence: The International Maritime Rivalry In the Red Sea,” https://trendsresearch.org/insight/power-in-evidence-the-international-maritime-rivalry-in-the-red-sea/, November 18, 2022

trends, 2022

Russian Nuclear Strategy in the Ukraine War: An Interim Report

NIPP , Information Series, 2022

This is an examination of how Moscow has used its nuclear arsenal from the inception of the war a... more

Korea 1 2021 document

The Silence of the Dragon: What Role is China Playing in Korea

Global Asia, 2021

SUMMARY BOX: Given the current stalemate in negotiations between the US and North Korea, China’s ... more SUMMARY BOX: Given the current stalemate in negotiations between the US and North Korea, China’s position is of paramount importance. With both Russia and China seemingly united on wanting to see major – and unrealistic – US concessions ahead of serious talks on denuclearization, Washington’s options are limited. For Beijing, writes Stephen Blank, North Korea is seen primarily through the prism of its competition with Washington and following the flurry of ultimately futile summits between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, this appears to be a position of de facto support by Beijing for Pyongyang’s continued nuclearization. This does not bode well for the region or the new Biden administration.

Guide to Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Great-Power Competition

Guide to Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Great-Power Competition, 2020

A Macdonald-Laurier Institute Publication

Russian policy in the Arctic is not as benign as usually presented

Africa 3 2019 esd

European security & Defence, 2020

ES&D 10 2019 11 15 S. Blank

Euorpean Secuirty & Defence, 2019

The New Potemkin Village: Russia in the Far East

eurasia daily monitor , 2019

The Russian Military in Contemporary Perspective

The Russian Military in Contemporary Perspective, 2019

Kei jointus-korea 2019 190724 final digital

Joint US-Korea Academic Studies, 2019

ESD 06 2019 22 26 Blank

European Security & Defence, 2019

ESD 06 2019 22 26 Blank

Central Asia-1-2018.docx

Pourquoi les Russes étaient-ils contre l'intervention ?

Outre-Terre, 2011

The Illusion of a Short-War

SAIS Review, 2000

The red star and the crescent: China and the Middle East

International Affairs, 2018

Established in 1789, Georgetown University is one of the world's leading academic and research in... more Established in 1789, Georgetown University is one of the world's leading academic and research institutions, offering a unique educational experience that prepares the next generation of global citizens to lead and make a difference in the world. Georgetown University in Qatar (GU-Q), founded in 2005, empowers students and shapes the human capacity that the MENA region needs for the 21st century, providing a holistic educational experience built upon the highest academic standards. GU-Q's Bachelor of Science in Foreign Service (BSFS) stresses multidisciplinary studies in a global context. It is the same globally respected program and curriculum offered at the Georgetown University

Russo-Turkish Divergence (Part Ii): The Energy Dimension

Energy issues figure prominently in the Russo-Turkish relationship. Their impact is not nearly as... more Energy issues figure prominently in the Russo-Turkish relationship. Their impact is not nearly as clear-cut as are the Iranian and Syrian issues. Turkey and Russia have a complex, evolving relationship characterized by mutual dependencies in the oil and gas spheres. As Richard Weitz stated, "Energy relations between Russia and Turkey have long been characterized by overt friendship and subtle competition."1In the first part of this two-part series of research on Russo-Turkish relations, the authors contended that during 2009-2010, behind the surface of the rhetoric of convergence, there frequently lay strategic divergence between Russia and Turkey. In all those years, Turkish officials and experts described their relations with Russia as being the best ever and said that bilateral harmony featured prominently in the past decade's international relations. However, Russia and Turkey had already begun to diverge during 2009-2010, and 2011 was a difficult year in Turkey&#3...

The Mediterranean Eskadra and Russia’s military-political strategy in the Mediterranean Basin

Defense & Security Analysis, 2021

Russia seeks to convert the Black Sea into a Russian lake. This entails projecting power well int... more Russia seeks to convert the Black Sea into a Russian lake. This entails projecting power well into the Mediterranean Sea. Since 2013 Moscow has reinforced the missile, air defence, and submarine component of its Mediterranean Eskadra (Squadron) to deny NATO access to the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Seas. This article explains how and why Russia’s Mediterranean Eskadra has become a major arm of Russia’s military-political strategy in these waters. By analysing its missions, roles, and activities the article shows how Moscow conducts innovative, sophisticated, yet simultaneously traditional military-political operations to maximise and enhance its global standing in accordance with its own strategy. The article further argues that the Eskadra’s creation and deployment corresponds not just to the revival of Russian military capability in 2013, but also to a much broader Russian perspective on contemporary war, and analyzes Russia’s political considerations in the deployment of major military forces in the Mediterranean Basin.

The ‘Special’ World: Stalin's Power Apparatus and the Soviet System's Secret Structures Of Communication

Scandinavian Economic History Review, 2009

The Red Star and the Crescent

PSN: Alliances/Inter-State Relationships (Topic), 2017

The Red Star and the Crescent provides an in-depth and multi-disciplinary analysis of the evolvin... more The Red Star and the Crescent provides an in-depth and multi-disciplinary analysis of the evolving relationship between China and the Middle East. Despite its increasing importance, very few studies have examined this dynamic, deepening, and multi-faceted nexus. James Reardon-Anderson has sought to fill this critical gap. The volume examines the ‘big picture’ of international relations, then zooms in on case studies and probes the underlying domestic factors on each side. Reardon-Anderson tackles topics as diverse as China’s security strategy in the Middle East, its military relations with the states of the region, its role in the Iran nuclear negotiations, the Uyghur question, and the significance and consequences of the Silk Road strategy.

Arms control and European security

Choice Reviews Online, 1990

Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per resp... more Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number.

East Asian Security Cooperation Shortcomings and Opportunities for Second-Tier Actors in the Region

by Brendan Howe and Stephen Blank

Journal of East Asian Affairs, 2023

This article assesses the promise of security cooperation through the mechanisms of international... more This article assesses the promise of security cooperation through the mechanisms of international organization in East Asia, a region where such approaches face the gravest challenges. The article first considers the mechanisms through which multilateral international organizations and other related institutions look to promote international governance and security cooperation between states, and why this has proven so difficult in East Asia. It then turns to the regional rise of security minilateralism, as well as why this may also not be the answer to the peaceful management of international relations between sovereign state entities. Finally, the article turns to policy prescriptions for second-tier powers, a new category of actor, to contribute to the transformation of conflictual relations in the region. These actors are key to the new conceptualizations of international organization presented herein: non-traditional security (NTS) minilateralism and regional international commissions. The central research questions are: [1] Why has international organizational security cooperation proven elusive in East Asia, and multilateralism failed? [2] Can the rise of security “minilateralism” in the region fill the void? [3] How can newly empowered regional actors address the shortcomings in the international management of relations in East Asia?

Russia's Mid-East Role

Russia claims to be an active mediator in the Middle East. To what degree is this true and what d... more

On the empirical optimization of antenna arrays

IEEE Antennas and Propagation Magazine, 2000

Empirical optimization is an algorithm for the optimization of antenna array performance under re... more Empirical optimization is an algorithm for the optimization of antenna array performance under realistic conditions, accounting for the effects of mutual coupling and scattering between the elements of the array and the nearby environment. The algorithm can synthesize optimum element spacings and optimum element excitations; and is applicable to arrays of various element types having arbitrary configurations, including phased arrays, conformal arrays and non-uniformly spaced arrays. The method is based on measured or calculated element pattern data and proceeds in an iterative fashion to the optimum design. A novel method is presented in which the admittance matrix representing an antenna array consisting of both active and passive elements, is extracted from the array's element pattern data. The admittance matrix formulation incorporated into the empirical optimization algorithm enables optimization of the location of both passive and active elements. The method also provides data for a linear approximation of coupling as a function of (non-uniform) element locations, and for calculation of element scan impedances. Computational and experimental results are presented that demonstrate the rapid convergence and effectiveness of empirical optimization in achieving realistic antenna array performance optimization.

Economics and security in Northeast Asia: The iron silk road, its context and implications*

Global Economic Review, 2002

In recent years, there have been some developments in East Asia. North Korea has officially state... more In recent years, there have been some developments in East Asia. North Korea has officially stated that it is developing nuclear weapons. Because of this, its neighbours have been uneasy and have resulted in significant changes. Previously, there was a primary drive to develop East Asia's economic potential. South Korea wanted to specialize in certain key strategic industries while becoming the region's business hub. Russia wanted to exploit its vast eastern region for its natural resources and build a railway connecting Europe to East Asia. Japan wants to escape its economic slump. China wants to bring about a new era of prosperity for its people. However, this all changed because of North Korea. Now, these nations are delicately balancing their economic priorities with political and military security.

Russian Energy and the Korean Peninsula

East Asia, 2008

The recent agreements concerning North Korea's nuclear program raise possibilities for providing ... more The recent agreements concerning North Korea's nuclear program raise possibilities for providing North Korea with energy (oil and gas) to compensate for the termination of its nuclear program and of integrating it more broadly into the Northeast Asian economy. Russia has long wanted to play the role of provider of oil and gas to North Korea and these agreements open up new opportunities for it to do so. However, serious obstacles in the nature of North Korea's precarious economic situation and its consequences, international rivalries in Northeast Asia, and Russia's own energy policies present serious obstacles to the realization of Russia's ambitions as regards North Korea and as energy provider to Northeast Asia as a whole.

The Chinese and Asian impact on Russian nuclear policy

Defense & Security Analysis, 2012

Asia, where nuclear powers already interact (including North Korea), exerts a growing influence o... more Asia, where nuclear powers already interact (including North Korea), exerts a growing influence on the thinking and policy underlying Russia's current and future nuclear (and overall defense) posture. China's rise is forcing Russia into a greater reliance on strategic offensive weapons and tactical nuclear weapons. These in turn will reinforce its opposition to US missile defenses, not only in Europe

Changing missions for Soviet space, air, and naval forces

Defense Analysis, 1991

... Official naval literature since 1986, the period of Admiral Chernavin's command, has con... more

The heavenly mission of Soviet space forces*

Defense Analysis, 1991

The Great Challenge: Nationalities and the Bolshevik State, 1917-1930

Contemporary Sociology, 1993

Beyond the Reset Policy: Current Dilemmas of U.S.–Russia Relations

Comparative Strategy, 2010

Page 1. Beyond the Reset Policy: Current Dilemmas of USRussia Relations STEPHEN BLANK Strategic ... more

India’s Rising Profile in Central Asia

Comparative Strategy, 2003

Page 1. CST 22(2) #8578 Comparative Strategy, 22:139157, 2003 Copyright © 2003 Taylor &amp;a... more

Gorbachev's Agenda and the next administration

Comparative Strategy, 1989

النجمة الحمراء والهلال: الصين و الشرق الأوسط

by Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS) and Stephen Blank

Arabic Summary Report 21, 2019

نظرت كثير من البحوث الحالية إلى الارتباطات الصينية بالشرق الأوسط من خلال عدسة الأمن، مع إيلاء اهت... more نظرت كثير من البحوث الحالية إلى الارتباطات الصينية بالشرق الأوسط من خلال عدسة الأمن، مع إيلاء اهتمام خاص لآثار التفاعلات الصينية وانعكاساتها على الولايات المتحدة وحلفائها. ومع ذلك، يجب النظر إلى علاقة الصين المتطورة في المنطقة بشكل رئيسي على أنها نتيجة لمصالحها الخاصة في تأمين احتياجاتها من الطاقة وتطوير أسواق التصدير، فضلاً عن كونها أصبحت قوة عالمية كبيرة لا يمكنها تحمل الانفصال عن الأحداث في العالم العربي. وأطلق مركز الدراسات الدولية والإقليمية مبادرة بحثية حول “الصين والشرق الأوسط” لدراسة العلاقة بين الطرفين، ليس فقط من خلال عدسات الأمن الدولي والطاقة والاقتصاد والاستثمارات، لكن مع الأخذ في الاعتبار أيضاً تفاعلات الصين الأوسع مع المنطقة في المجالات الاجتماعية والثقافية.

The Red Star and the Crescent

by Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), Joseph Sassoon, and Stephen Blank

Summary Report 21, 2017

The Red Star and the Crescent provides an in-depth and multi-disciplinary analysis of the evolvin... more The Red Star and the Crescent provides an in-depth and multi-disciplinary analysis of the evolving relationship between China and the Middle East. Despite its increasing importance, very few studies have examined this dynamic, deepening, and multi-faceted nexus. James Reardon-Anderson has sought to fill this critical gap. The volume examines the ‘big picture’ of international relations, then zooms in on case studies and probes the underlying domestic factors on each side. Reardon-Anderson tackles topics as diverse as China’s security strategy in the Middle East, its military relations with the states of the region, its role in the Iran nuclear negotiations, the Uyghur question, and the significance and consequences of the Silk Road strategy.

The Red Star and the Crescent China and the Middle East

by Center for International and Regional Studies (CIRS), James Reardon-Anderson, Mehran Kamrava, and Stephen Blank

Book Teaser, 2018

This book provides an in-depth and multi-disciplinary analysis of the evolving relationship betwe... more This book provides an in-depth and multi-disciplinary analysis of the evolving relationship between China and the Middle East. Despite its increasing importance, very few studies have examined this dynamic, deepening, and multi-faceted nexus. James Reardon-Anderson has sought to fill this critical gap. The volume examines the ‘big picture’ of international relations, then zooms in on case studies and probes the underlying domestic factors on each side. Reardon-Anderson tackles topics as diverse as China’s security strategy in the Middle East, its military relations with the states of the region, its role in the Iran nuclear negotiations, the Uyghur question, and the significance and consequences of the Silk Road strategy.

Institute for National Security Strategy

Journal of East Asian Affairs, 2022

is dedicated to the development of policy recommendations and theoretical frameworks in fields su... more is dedicated to the development of policy recommendations and theoretical frameworks in fields such as East Asian international relations, emerging security and geopolitics, and inter-Korean relations. It has approximately 2,000 subscribers worldwide, including academics, government officials, and journalists, and is accessible worldwide in the libraries of major universities and research institutes.