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John Clague

Simon Fraser University, Earth Sciences, Faculty Member

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My research is aimed at reducing the risk from natural hazards, and encompasses a range of natural phenomena including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides, and climate change
Phone: +1.778.782.4924
Address: Department of Earth Sciences
Simon Fraser University
8888 University Dr.
Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6
Canada

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Papers by John Clague

Relationship between the spatial distribution of landslides and rock mass strength, and implications for the driving mechanism of landslides in tectonically active mountain ranges

Engineering Geology, 2021

Abstract The relationship between landslides and rock mass strength is fundamental for assessing ... more Abstract The relationship between landslides and rock mass strength is fundamental for assessing landslide hazards. Some researchers have proposed that there is an inverse relationship between the number of landslides and rock mass strength. However, in some tectonically active mountain ranges, higher rates of landsliding appear to be associated with greater rock mass strength. We investigated the relation between landslides and rock mass strength in the Langxian (LX), Lulang (LL), and Tongmai (TM) regions in southeastern Tibet by identifying and mapping 294 large bedrock landslides using 10-m resolution lidar bare-earth imagery. An inverse relationship between topographic relief and the slope angle of historical landslides demonstrates that rock mass strength is an important factor controlling relief in the study area. Applying Culmann's method, we back-calculated rock mass strengths ranging from 60 to 770 kPa at the landscape scale. Our data show that, at the landscape scale, more landslides have occurred on the hillslopes with greater rock mass strength than on those with lower rock mass strength. We conclude that the stability of slopes in our study areas is controlled by rock mass strength, but the dominant drivers of failure are rock uplift and river incision, rather than a reduction in rock strength as has been proposed in some tectonically passive regions.

Exploration of the kinematics of the 1963 vajont slide, Italy, using a numerical modelling toolbox

Col Tramontin Fault and Erto Syncline, as well as block size, on the failure. Finally, preliminar... more

Late cenozoic geology and geomorphology of the Laguna de Agnia Area, Argentina

Journal of South American Earth Sciences, 2021

Abstract Laguna de Agnia is located within an endorheic basin in arid extra-Andean Patagonia. A v... more Abstract Laguna de Agnia is located within an endorheic basin in arid extra-Andean Patagonia. A variety of erosional and depositional landforms, most of which are relict, are well preserved in the basin. Geological, geomorphological, and sedimentological studies, 14C and 40Ar/39Ar ages, and paleomagnetic data allow us to modify the published interpretation of the late Cenozoic stratigraphy of the area and provide an improved understanding of local landscape evolution, and paleoenvironments and paleoclimates in the region. The basin formed during or before the late Oligocene. Miocene pyroclastic deposits, which are widely distributed in this part of Patagonia, were not found within the basin. However, a bajada sloping down toward the east side of the lake likely dates to the Miocene. Basalt lava flows reached the west margin of the Laguna de Agnia depression 3.39 ± 0.02 Ma. A lacustrine phase is manifest in numerous shorelines and related features east of and above the modern lake. This shoreline system, one of the most extensive in Patagonia, provides evidence for high paleo-lake levels associated with cooler and wetter conditions during the late Pleistocene and even in some periods during the Holocene, when Southern Hemisphere Westerlies were more intense than today.

Preliminary results of a photogrammetric characterization of the 1963 Vajont landslide

Cited By (since 1996):1, Export Date: 3 October 2014

Hanson et al QR 2014

Landslides on Haida Gwaii during and after the Earthquake

Reply to letter to the editor from Easterbrook and Kovanen re Quaternary Research 61, 193–203

Quaternary Research, 2005

Palaeoecology 203, 337–342. Easterbrook, D.J., Kovanen, D.J., 1998. dPre-younger Dryas resurgence... more Palaeoecology 203, 337–342. Easterbrook, D.J., Kovanen, D.J., 1998. dPre-younger Dryas resurgence of the southwestern margin of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet, British Columbia, CanadaT: comments: Boreas 27, 225–230. Heier-Nielsen, S., Heinemeier, J., Nielsen, H.L., Rud, N., 1995. Recent reservoir ages for Danish fjords and marine waters. Radiocarbon 37, 875–882. Hutchinson, I., James, T.S., Reimer, P.J., Bornhold, B.D., Clague, J.J., 2004. Marine and limnic radiocarbon reservoir corrections for studies of lateand postglacial environments in Georgia Basin and Puget Lowland, British Columbia, Canada and Washington, USA. Quaternary Research 61, 193–203. Kovanen, D.J., 2002. Morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for Allerbd and Younger Dryas age glacier fluctuations of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet, British Columbia, Canada and Northwestern Washington, U.S.A. Boreas 31, 163–184. Kovanen, D.J., Easterbrook, D.J., 2002a. Paleodeviations of radiocarbon marine reservoir values for the NE Pacific. Geology 30, 243–246. Kovanen, D.J., Easterbrook, D.J., 2002b. Timing and extent of Allerod and Younger Dryas age (ca. 12,500–10,000 14C yr B.P.) oscillation of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet in the Fraser Lowland, western North America. Quaternary Research 57, 208–224. Pellatt, M.G., Mathewes, R.W., Clague, J.J., 2004. Reply to comments on bImplication of a late-glacial pollen record for the glacial and climatic history of the Fraser Lowland, British ColumbiaQ by Easterbrook, 2004. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 203, 343–346. Rodrigues, C., 1988. Late Quaternary invertebrate faunal associations and chronology of the western Champlain Sea. In: Gadd, N.R. (Ed.), The Late Quaternary Development of the Champlain Sea Basin, Special Paper 35, pp. 155–176. Geological Association of Canada, Ottawa. Southon, J.R., Nelson, D.E., Vogel, J.S., 1990. A record of past ocean– atmosphere radiocarbon differences from the northeast Pacific. Paleoceanography 5, 197–206. Stuiver,M., Braziunas, T.F., 1993.Modelling atmospheric C influences and C ages of marine samples to 10,000 BC. Radiocarbon 35, 137–189.

The 1963 Vaiont landslide, Italy

Landslides, 2012

ABSTRACT

Area change of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 1919 to 2006

The Cryosphere Discussions, 2012

Glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains constitute an important freshwater resource. To enhance ... more Glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains constitute an important freshwater resource. To enhance our understanding of the influence climate and local topography have on glacier area, large numbers of glaciers of different sizes and attributes need to be monitored over periods of many decades. We used Interprovincial Boundary Commission Survey (IBCS) maps of the Alberta-British Columbia (BC) border (1903-1924), BC Terrain Resource Information Management (TRIM) data (1982-1987), and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery (2000-2002 and 2006) to document planimetric changes in glacier cover in the central and southern Canadian Rocky Mountains between 1919 and 2006. Over this period, glacier cover in the study area decreased by 590 ± 70 km 2 (40 ± 5 %), 17 of 523 glaciers disappeared and 124 glaciers fragmented into multiple ice masses. Glaciers smaller than 1.0 km 2 experienced the greatest relative area loss (64 ± 8 %), and relative area loss is more variable with small glaciers, suggesting that the local topographic setting controls the response of these glaciers to climate change. Small glaciers with low slopes, low mean/median elevations, south to west aspects, and high insolation experienced the largest reduction in area. Similar rates of area change characterize the periods 1919-1985 and 1985-2001; −6.3 ± 0.6 km 2 yr −1 (−0.4 ± 0.1 % yr −1) and −5.0 ± 0.5 km 2 yr −1 (−0.5 ± 0.1 % yr −1), respectively. The rate of area loss, however, increased over the period 2001-2006; −19.3 ± 2.4 km 2 yr −1 (−2.0 ± 0.2 % yr −1). Applying size class-specific scaling factors, we estimate a total reduction in glacier cover in the central and southern Canadian Rocky Mountains for the period 1919-2006 of 750 km 2 (30 %). 1 Introduction Glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains constitute an important freshwater resource. Glacier meltwater flows into four major watersheds, those of the Mackenzie, Nelson, Fraser, and Columbia river basins and drains into the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans. The contribution of meltwater to total discharge may be low, but glacier runoff supplements summer flow and regulates stream temperature, both of which are important for aquatic ecosystems, irrigation, industry, hydro power and human consumption (

Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2010

Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasi... more Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasingly identified in the European Alps, as seen by changes in long-term high-alpine temperature, precipitation, glacier cover and permafrost. In turn, these changes impact on land-surface stability, and lead to increased frequency and magnitude of natural mountain hazards, including rock falls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and floods. These hazards also impact on infrastructure, and socio-economic and cultural activities in mountain regions. This paper presents two case studies (2003 heatwave, 2005 floods) that demonstrate some of the interlinkages between physical processes and human activity in climatically sensitive alpine regions that are responding to ongoing climate change. Based on this evidence, we outline future implications of climate change on mountain environments and its impact on hazards and hazard management in paraglacial mountain systems.

Identification and Characterization of Dynamic Alpine Subglacial Lakes Using a Fusion of InSAR and GIS

We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and a geographic information system (GIS)... more We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and a geographic information system (GIS) to identify and characterize three dynamic alpine subglacial lakes in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Subglacial and subaerial glacier-dammed lakes and the catastrophic floods (jokulhlaups) they release are a hazard in glacierized mountain regions around the world. Many subglacial lakes are not identified until they become subaerially exposed or release a jokulhlaup. The lakes discussed here are dammed by the Brady Glacier in southeast Alaska, 120 km west of Juneau. For InSAR analysis, we utilized 20 ascending and descending ERS-1/-2 tandem radar images (1-day repeat interval) provided by the European Space Agency and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM). We processed SAR data into unwrapped interferograms using standard techniques. Two interferograms have very poor coherence and the remaining eight show significant line of sight (LOS) displacement ...

A Sand Sheet Deposited by the 1964 Alaska Tsunami at Port Alberni, British Columbia

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 1994

... All rights reserved. Permissions &amp;amp; Reprints. Regular Article. A Sand Sheet Deposi... more

Reconnaissance observations of the July 24, 2007 rock and ice avalanche at Mount Steele, St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

4th Canadian Conference on Geohazards: From Causes to Management, J. Locat, D. Perret, D. Turmel, D. Demers and S. Leroueil (eds.), Quebec City, 2008

A catastrophic rock and ice avalanche occurred on the north face of Mount Steele, Yukon Territory... more A catastrophic rock and ice avalanche occurred on the north face of Mount Steele, Yukon Territory, on July 24, 2007, depositing debris onto Steele Glacier. In the days and weeks preceding the event, at least three smaller landslides initiated from the same slope. Earlier landslide activity at this location is evident on historical photographs dating back to the 1930s. The July 24 event was one of the largest rock avalanches documented in the St. Elias Mountains in the past century and is one of 16 rock avalanches known to ...

Structure, stability, and tsunami hazard associated with a rock slope in Knight Inlet, British Columbia

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2015

Rockfalls and rockslides during the past 12 000 years have deposited bouldery debris cones on the... more Rockfalls and rockslides during the past 12 000 years have deposited bouldery debris cones on the seafloor beneath massive rock slopes throughout the inner part of Knight Inlet. The 885 m high rock slope, located across from a former First Nations village destroyed in the late 1500s by a slide-induced wave, exposes the contact between a Late Cretaceous dioritic pluton and metamorphic rocks of the Upper Triassic Karmutsen Formation. The pluton margin is strongly foliated parallel to primary and secondary fabrics in the metamorphic rocks, resulting in highly persistent brittle structures. Other important structures include a set of sheeting joints and highly persistent mafic dykes and faults. Stability analysis indicates that planar and wedge rock slope failures up to about 500 000 m 3 in volume could occur. We suspect that failures of this size in this setting would have the potential to generate locally hazardous waves. As several similar rock slopes fronted by large submarine debris cones exist in the inner part of Knight Inlet, it is clear that tsunami hazards should be considered in coastal infrastructure development and land-use planning in this area.

Hazards posed by large mass movements at Mount Meager volcano, Canada

Data for: Pliocene and Early Pleistocene Glaciation and Landscape Evolution on the Patagonian Steppe, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina

Representative paleomagnetic data (Figures 1, 2, and 3), and published K40/Ar40 and Ar40-Ar39 age... more

A Robust SAR Speckle Tracking Workflow for Measuring and Interpreting the 3D Surface Displacement of Landslides

Remote Sensing, 2021

We present a workflow for investigating large, slow-moving landslides which combines the syntheti... more We present a workflow for investigating large, slow-moving landslides which combines the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technique, GIS post-processing, and airborne laser scanning (ALS), and apply it to Fels landslide in Alaska, US. First, we exploit a speckle tracking (ST) approach to derive the easting, northing, and vertical components of the displacement vectors across the rock slope for two five-year windows, 2010–2015 and 2015–2020. Then, we perform post-processing in a GIS environment to derive displacement magnitude, trend, and plunge maps of the landslide area. Finally, we compare the ST-derived displacement data with structural lineament maps and profiles extracted from the ALS dataset. Relying on remotely sensed data, we estimate that the thickness of the slide mass is more than 100 m and displacements occur through a combination of slumping at the toe and planar sliding in the central and upper slope. Our approach provides information and interpretations that can assist ...

Exploring new methods to analyse spatial impact distributions on debris‐flow fans using data from south‐western British Columbia

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2021

Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behavi... more Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behaviour. Debris flow mobility is highly variable and flows can sporadically avulse the channel. For hazard and risk assessments, practitioners typically base the probability of spatial impact or avulsion on their experience and expert judgement. To support decision-making with empirical observations, we studied spatial impact distributions on 30 active debris-flow fans in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We mapped 146 debris-flow impact areas over an average observation period of 74 years using orthorectified airphotos, satellite imagery, topographic base

Relations between climate change and mass movement: Perspectives from the Canadian Cordillera and the European Alps

Global and Planetary Change, 2021

Abstract Earth's climate is warming and will continue to warm as the century progresses. High... more Abstract Earth's climate is warming and will continue to warm as the century progresses. High mountains and high latitudes are experiencing the greatest warming of all regions on Earth and also are some of the most sensitive areas to climate change, in part because ecosystems and natural processes in these areas are intimately linked to the cryosphere. Evidence is mounting that warming will further reduce permafrost and snow and ice cover in high mountains, which in turn will destabilize many slopes, alter sediment delivery to streams, and change subalpine and alpine ecosystems. This paper contributes to the continuing discussion of impacts of climate change on mountain environments by comparing and discussing processes and trends in the mountains of western Canada and the European Alps. We highlight the effects of physiography and climate on physical processes occurring in the two regions. Processes of interest include landslides and debris flows induced by glacier debuttressing, alpine permafrost thaw, changes in rainfall regime, formation and sudden drainage of glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes, ice avalanches, glacier surges, and large-scale sediment transfers due to rapid deglacierization. Our analysis points out the value of integrating observations and data from different areas of the world to better understand these processes and their impacts.

Can deep learning algorithms outperform benchmark machine learning algorithms in flood susceptibility modeling?

Journal of Hydrology, 2021

Abstract This paper introduces a new deep-learning algorithm of deep belief network (DBN) based o... more Abstract This paper introduces a new deep-learning algorithm of deep belief network (DBN) based on an extreme learning machine (ELM) that is structured by back propagation (BN) and optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, named DEBP, for flood susceptibility mapping in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon watershed, central Vietnam. We use 847 locations of floods that occurred in 2007, 2009, and 2013 and 16 flood conditioning factors evaluated by an information gain ratio (IGR) technique to construct and validate the proposed model. Statistical metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1-measure, Jaccard coefficient, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), root mean square error (RMSE), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), are used to assess the goodness-of-fit/performance and prediction accuracy of the new deep learning model. We further compare the proposed model with several well-known machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural network-based radial base function (ANNRBF), logistic regression (LR), logistic model tree (LMTree), functional tree (FTree), and alternating decision tree (ADTree). The new proposed model, DEBP, has the highest goodness-of-fit (AUC = 0.970) and prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.967) of all of the tested models and thus shows promise as a tool for flood susceptibility modeling. We conclude that novel deep learning algorithms such as the one used in this study can improve the accuracy of flood susceptibility maps that are required by planners, decision makers, and government agencies to manage of areas vulnerable to flood-induced damage.

Relationship between the spatial distribution of landslides and rock mass strength, and implications for the driving mechanism of landslides in tectonically active mountain ranges

Engineering Geology, 2021

Abstract The relationship between landslides and rock mass strength is fundamental for assessing ... more Abstract The relationship between landslides and rock mass strength is fundamental for assessing landslide hazards. Some researchers have proposed that there is an inverse relationship between the number of landslides and rock mass strength. However, in some tectonically active mountain ranges, higher rates of landsliding appear to be associated with greater rock mass strength. We investigated the relation between landslides and rock mass strength in the Langxian (LX), Lulang (LL), and Tongmai (TM) regions in southeastern Tibet by identifying and mapping 294 large bedrock landslides using 10-m resolution lidar bare-earth imagery. An inverse relationship between topographic relief and the slope angle of historical landslides demonstrates that rock mass strength is an important factor controlling relief in the study area. Applying Culmann's method, we back-calculated rock mass strengths ranging from 60 to 770 kPa at the landscape scale. Our data show that, at the landscape scale, more landslides have occurred on the hillslopes with greater rock mass strength than on those with lower rock mass strength. We conclude that the stability of slopes in our study areas is controlled by rock mass strength, but the dominant drivers of failure are rock uplift and river incision, rather than a reduction in rock strength as has been proposed in some tectonically passive regions.

Exploration of the kinematics of the 1963 vajont slide, Italy, using a numerical modelling toolbox

Col Tramontin Fault and Erto Syncline, as well as block size, on the failure. Finally, preliminar... more

Late cenozoic geology and geomorphology of the Laguna de Agnia Area, Argentina

Journal of South American Earth Sciences, 2021

Abstract Laguna de Agnia is located within an endorheic basin in arid extra-Andean Patagonia. A v... more Abstract Laguna de Agnia is located within an endorheic basin in arid extra-Andean Patagonia. A variety of erosional and depositional landforms, most of which are relict, are well preserved in the basin. Geological, geomorphological, and sedimentological studies, 14C and 40Ar/39Ar ages, and paleomagnetic data allow us to modify the published interpretation of the late Cenozoic stratigraphy of the area and provide an improved understanding of local landscape evolution, and paleoenvironments and paleoclimates in the region. The basin formed during or before the late Oligocene. Miocene pyroclastic deposits, which are widely distributed in this part of Patagonia, were not found within the basin. However, a bajada sloping down toward the east side of the lake likely dates to the Miocene. Basalt lava flows reached the west margin of the Laguna de Agnia depression 3.39 ± 0.02 Ma. A lacustrine phase is manifest in numerous shorelines and related features east of and above the modern lake. This shoreline system, one of the most extensive in Patagonia, provides evidence for high paleo-lake levels associated with cooler and wetter conditions during the late Pleistocene and even in some periods during the Holocene, when Southern Hemisphere Westerlies were more intense than today.

Preliminary results of a photogrammetric characterization of the 1963 Vajont landslide

Cited By (since 1996):1, Export Date: 3 October 2014

Hanson et al QR 2014

Landslides on Haida Gwaii during and after the Earthquake

Reply to letter to the editor from Easterbrook and Kovanen re Quaternary Research 61, 193–203

Quaternary Research, 2005

Palaeoecology 203, 337–342. Easterbrook, D.J., Kovanen, D.J., 1998. dPre-younger Dryas resurgence... more Palaeoecology 203, 337–342. Easterbrook, D.J., Kovanen, D.J., 1998. dPre-younger Dryas resurgence of the southwestern margin of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet, British Columbia, CanadaT: comments: Boreas 27, 225–230. Heier-Nielsen, S., Heinemeier, J., Nielsen, H.L., Rud, N., 1995. Recent reservoir ages for Danish fjords and marine waters. Radiocarbon 37, 875–882. Hutchinson, I., James, T.S., Reimer, P.J., Bornhold, B.D., Clague, J.J., 2004. Marine and limnic radiocarbon reservoir corrections for studies of lateand postglacial environments in Georgia Basin and Puget Lowland, British Columbia, Canada and Washington, USA. Quaternary Research 61, 193–203. Kovanen, D.J., 2002. Morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for Allerbd and Younger Dryas age glacier fluctuations of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet, British Columbia, Canada and Northwestern Washington, U.S.A. Boreas 31, 163–184. Kovanen, D.J., Easterbrook, D.J., 2002a. Paleodeviations of radiocarbon marine reservoir values for the NE Pacific. Geology 30, 243–246. Kovanen, D.J., Easterbrook, D.J., 2002b. Timing and extent of Allerod and Younger Dryas age (ca. 12,500–10,000 14C yr B.P.) oscillation of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet in the Fraser Lowland, western North America. Quaternary Research 57, 208–224. Pellatt, M.G., Mathewes, R.W., Clague, J.J., 2004. Reply to comments on bImplication of a late-glacial pollen record for the glacial and climatic history of the Fraser Lowland, British ColumbiaQ by Easterbrook, 2004. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 203, 343–346. Rodrigues, C., 1988. Late Quaternary invertebrate faunal associations and chronology of the western Champlain Sea. In: Gadd, N.R. (Ed.), The Late Quaternary Development of the Champlain Sea Basin, Special Paper 35, pp. 155–176. Geological Association of Canada, Ottawa. Southon, J.R., Nelson, D.E., Vogel, J.S., 1990. A record of past ocean– atmosphere radiocarbon differences from the northeast Pacific. Paleoceanography 5, 197–206. Stuiver,M., Braziunas, T.F., 1993.Modelling atmospheric C influences and C ages of marine samples to 10,000 BC. Radiocarbon 35, 137–189.

The 1963 Vaiont landslide, Italy

Landslides, 2012

ABSTRACT

Area change of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 1919 to 2006

The Cryosphere Discussions, 2012

Glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains constitute an important freshwater resource. To enhance ... more Glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains constitute an important freshwater resource. To enhance our understanding of the influence climate and local topography have on glacier area, large numbers of glaciers of different sizes and attributes need to be monitored over periods of many decades. We used Interprovincial Boundary Commission Survey (IBCS) maps of the Alberta-British Columbia (BC) border (1903-1924), BC Terrain Resource Information Management (TRIM) data (1982-1987), and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery (2000-2002 and 2006) to document planimetric changes in glacier cover in the central and southern Canadian Rocky Mountains between 1919 and 2006. Over this period, glacier cover in the study area decreased by 590 ± 70 km 2 (40 ± 5 %), 17 of 523 glaciers disappeared and 124 glaciers fragmented into multiple ice masses. Glaciers smaller than 1.0 km 2 experienced the greatest relative area loss (64 ± 8 %), and relative area loss is more variable with small glaciers, suggesting that the local topographic setting controls the response of these glaciers to climate change. Small glaciers with low slopes, low mean/median elevations, south to west aspects, and high insolation experienced the largest reduction in area. Similar rates of area change characterize the periods 1919-1985 and 1985-2001; −6.3 ± 0.6 km 2 yr −1 (−0.4 ± 0.1 % yr −1) and −5.0 ± 0.5 km 2 yr −1 (−0.5 ± 0.1 % yr −1), respectively. The rate of area loss, however, increased over the period 2001-2006; −19.3 ± 2.4 km 2 yr −1 (−2.0 ± 0.2 % yr −1). Applying size class-specific scaling factors, we estimate a total reduction in glacier cover in the central and southern Canadian Rocky Mountains for the period 1919-2006 of 750 km 2 (30 %). 1 Introduction Glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains constitute an important freshwater resource. Glacier meltwater flows into four major watersheds, those of the Mackenzie, Nelson, Fraser, and Columbia river basins and drains into the Arctic, Atlantic, and Pacific oceans. The contribution of meltwater to total discharge may be low, but glacier runoff supplements summer flow and regulates stream temperature, both of which are important for aquatic ecosystems, irrigation, industry, hydro power and human consumption (

Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2010

Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasi... more Climate and environmental changes associated with anthropogenic global warming are being increasingly identified in the European Alps, as seen by changes in long-term high-alpine temperature, precipitation, glacier cover and permafrost. In turn, these changes impact on land-surface stability, and lead to increased frequency and magnitude of natural mountain hazards, including rock falls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and floods. These hazards also impact on infrastructure, and socio-economic and cultural activities in mountain regions. This paper presents two case studies (2003 heatwave, 2005 floods) that demonstrate some of the interlinkages between physical processes and human activity in climatically sensitive alpine regions that are responding to ongoing climate change. Based on this evidence, we outline future implications of climate change on mountain environments and its impact on hazards and hazard management in paraglacial mountain systems.

Identification and Characterization of Dynamic Alpine Subglacial Lakes Using a Fusion of InSAR and GIS

We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and a geographic information system (GIS)... more We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and a geographic information system (GIS) to identify and characterize three dynamic alpine subglacial lakes in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Subglacial and subaerial glacier-dammed lakes and the catastrophic floods (jokulhlaups) they release are a hazard in glacierized mountain regions around the world. Many subglacial lakes are not identified until they become subaerially exposed or release a jokulhlaup. The lakes discussed here are dammed by the Brady Glacier in southeast Alaska, 120 km west of Juneau. For InSAR analysis, we utilized 20 ascending and descending ERS-1/-2 tandem radar images (1-day repeat interval) provided by the European Space Agency and a Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM). We processed SAR data into unwrapped interferograms using standard techniques. Two interferograms have very poor coherence and the remaining eight show significant line of sight (LOS) displacement ...

A Sand Sheet Deposited by the 1964 Alaska Tsunami at Port Alberni, British Columbia

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 1994

... All rights reserved. Permissions &amp;amp; Reprints. Regular Article. A Sand Sheet Deposi... more

Reconnaissance observations of the July 24, 2007 rock and ice avalanche at Mount Steele, St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

4th Canadian Conference on Geohazards: From Causes to Management, J. Locat, D. Perret, D. Turmel, D. Demers and S. Leroueil (eds.), Quebec City, 2008

A catastrophic rock and ice avalanche occurred on the north face of Mount Steele, Yukon Territory... more A catastrophic rock and ice avalanche occurred on the north face of Mount Steele, Yukon Territory, on July 24, 2007, depositing debris onto Steele Glacier. In the days and weeks preceding the event, at least three smaller landslides initiated from the same slope. Earlier landslide activity at this location is evident on historical photographs dating back to the 1930s. The July 24 event was one of the largest rock avalanches documented in the St. Elias Mountains in the past century and is one of 16 rock avalanches known to ...

Structure, stability, and tsunami hazard associated with a rock slope in Knight Inlet, British Columbia

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2015

Rockfalls and rockslides during the past 12 000 years have deposited bouldery debris cones on the... more Rockfalls and rockslides during the past 12 000 years have deposited bouldery debris cones on the seafloor beneath massive rock slopes throughout the inner part of Knight Inlet. The 885 m high rock slope, located across from a former First Nations village destroyed in the late 1500s by a slide-induced wave, exposes the contact between a Late Cretaceous dioritic pluton and metamorphic rocks of the Upper Triassic Karmutsen Formation. The pluton margin is strongly foliated parallel to primary and secondary fabrics in the metamorphic rocks, resulting in highly persistent brittle structures. Other important structures include a set of sheeting joints and highly persistent mafic dykes and faults. Stability analysis indicates that planar and wedge rock slope failures up to about 500 000 m 3 in volume could occur. We suspect that failures of this size in this setting would have the potential to generate locally hazardous waves. As several similar rock slopes fronted by large submarine debris cones exist in the inner part of Knight Inlet, it is clear that tsunami hazards should be considered in coastal infrastructure development and land-use planning in this area.

Hazards posed by large mass movements at Mount Meager volcano, Canada

Data for: Pliocene and Early Pleistocene Glaciation and Landscape Evolution on the Patagonian Steppe, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina

Representative paleomagnetic data (Figures 1, 2, and 3), and published K40/Ar40 and Ar40-Ar39 age... more

A Robust SAR Speckle Tracking Workflow for Measuring and Interpreting the 3D Surface Displacement of Landslides

Remote Sensing, 2021

We present a workflow for investigating large, slow-moving landslides which combines the syntheti... more We present a workflow for investigating large, slow-moving landslides which combines the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technique, GIS post-processing, and airborne laser scanning (ALS), and apply it to Fels landslide in Alaska, US. First, we exploit a speckle tracking (ST) approach to derive the easting, northing, and vertical components of the displacement vectors across the rock slope for two five-year windows, 2010–2015 and 2015–2020. Then, we perform post-processing in a GIS environment to derive displacement magnitude, trend, and plunge maps of the landslide area. Finally, we compare the ST-derived displacement data with structural lineament maps and profiles extracted from the ALS dataset. Relying on remotely sensed data, we estimate that the thickness of the slide mass is more than 100 m and displacements occur through a combination of slumping at the toe and planar sliding in the central and upper slope. Our approach provides information and interpretations that can assist ...

Exploring new methods to analyse spatial impact distributions on debris‐flow fans using data from south‐western British Columbia

Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2021

Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behavi... more Predicting the spatial impact of debris flows on fans is challenging due to complex runout behaviour. Debris flow mobility is highly variable and flows can sporadically avulse the channel. For hazard and risk assessments, practitioners typically base the probability of spatial impact or avulsion on their experience and expert judgement. To support decision-making with empirical observations, we studied spatial impact distributions on 30 active debris-flow fans in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. We mapped 146 debris-flow impact areas over an average observation period of 74 years using orthorectified airphotos, satellite imagery, topographic base

Relations between climate change and mass movement: Perspectives from the Canadian Cordillera and the European Alps

Global and Planetary Change, 2021

Abstract Earth's climate is warming and will continue to warm as the century progresses. High... more Abstract Earth's climate is warming and will continue to warm as the century progresses. High mountains and high latitudes are experiencing the greatest warming of all regions on Earth and also are some of the most sensitive areas to climate change, in part because ecosystems and natural processes in these areas are intimately linked to the cryosphere. Evidence is mounting that warming will further reduce permafrost and snow and ice cover in high mountains, which in turn will destabilize many slopes, alter sediment delivery to streams, and change subalpine and alpine ecosystems. This paper contributes to the continuing discussion of impacts of climate change on mountain environments by comparing and discussing processes and trends in the mountains of western Canada and the European Alps. We highlight the effects of physiography and climate on physical processes occurring in the two regions. Processes of interest include landslides and debris flows induced by glacier debuttressing, alpine permafrost thaw, changes in rainfall regime, formation and sudden drainage of glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes, ice avalanches, glacier surges, and large-scale sediment transfers due to rapid deglacierization. Our analysis points out the value of integrating observations and data from different areas of the world to better understand these processes and their impacts.

Can deep learning algorithms outperform benchmark machine learning algorithms in flood susceptibility modeling?

Journal of Hydrology, 2021

Abstract This paper introduces a new deep-learning algorithm of deep belief network (DBN) based o... more Abstract This paper introduces a new deep-learning algorithm of deep belief network (DBN) based on an extreme learning machine (ELM) that is structured by back propagation (BN) and optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, named DEBP, for flood susceptibility mapping in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon watershed, central Vietnam. We use 847 locations of floods that occurred in 2007, 2009, and 2013 and 16 flood conditioning factors evaluated by an information gain ratio (IGR) technique to construct and validate the proposed model. Statistical metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1-measure, Jaccard coefficient, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), root mean square error (RMSE), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), are used to assess the goodness-of-fit/performance and prediction accuracy of the new deep learning model. We further compare the proposed model with several well-known machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural network-based radial base function (ANNRBF), logistic regression (LR), logistic model tree (LMTree), functional tree (FTree), and alternating decision tree (ADTree). The new proposed model, DEBP, has the highest goodness-of-fit (AUC = 0.970) and prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.967) of all of the tested models and thus shows promise as a tool for flood susceptibility modeling. We conclude that novel deep learning algorithms such as the one used in this study can improve the accuracy of flood susceptibility maps that are required by planners, decision makers, and government agencies to manage of areas vulnerable to flood-induced damage.