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The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20190901022422/https://www.iea.org/publications/roleofgas/

The Role of Gas in Today's Energy Transitions

 

"Natural gas is one of the mainstays of global energy. Where it replaces more polluting fuels, it improves air quality and limits emissions of carbon dioxide. In this analysis, we explore how widespread and durable this role might be in some of today's key energy markets."
Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director

The Role of Gas in Today's Energy Transitions examines the role of fuel switching, primarily from coal to natural gas, to reduce CO2 emissions and air pollutants.

Four case studies, covering the United States, the European Union, China, and India, reveal the various opportunities, hurdles and limits of fuel switching as a way to address environmental challenges.

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BERJAYA

Emissions savings

After three flat years, global energy-related CO2 emissions resumed growth in 2017 and 2018, representing a dangerous disconnect with global climate goals. 

It is clear that switching between unabated consumption of fossil fuels, on its own, does not provide a long-term answer to climate change, but there can nonetheless be significant CO2 and air quality benefits, in specific countries, sectors and timeframes, from using less emissions-intensive fuels.

Since 2010, coal-to-gas switching has saved around 500 million tonnes of CO2 - an effect equivalent to putting an extra 200 million EVs running on zero-carbon electricity on the road over the same period.

	United States	China	Europe	India	Rest of world
2011	-11	-3	-3	-1	-7
2012	-101	-15	-5	-25	-17
2013	-102	-23	-12	-25	-35
2014	-104	-29	-14	-25	-40
2015	-193	-42	-21	-25	-42
2016	-209	-64	-55	-28	-48
2017	-211	-94	-65	-28	-50
2018	-255	-130	-66	-28	-57

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The four countries and regions chosen for in-depth analysis in this report – the United States, Europe, China and India – display a wide range of market and policy dynamics, which affects the ways in which coal and gas compete.
  • United States
  • China
  • Europe
  • India

In the United States, the shale revolution has had a dramatic effect on gas supply and prices. Alongside some state-level as well as federal-level environmental policies this has pushed gas into the energy mix while pushing out coal.

Since 2010, the market share of gas has increased more than any other energy source.

	Coal	Gas	Other
1990	24	23	53
2010	23	25	52
2018	15	30	55

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In China, gas demand has risen very quickly in recent years because of a major policy push to improve air quality.

Gas has substituted for coal-fired industrial and residential boilers in many urban areas, but the case for switching in the power sector is less clear.

	Coal	Gas	Other
1990	61	1	38
2010	70	4	26
2018	63	7	30

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There has been relatively less switching in Europe since 2010, with the notable exception of the United Kingdom.

However today’s combination of low gas prices and higher CO2 prices in the European Union is giving this process renewed momentum.

	Coal	Gas	Other
1990	28	18	54
2010	16	26	58
2018	14	24	62

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In India, gas currently has a small share of the energy mix.

Large-scale switching has been held back by supply constraints and affordability issues, as well as a lack of infrastructure.

	Coal	Gas	Other
1990	30	4	66
2010	40	8	52
2018	44	6	50

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Switching with existing infrastructure

The clearest case for switching from coal to gas comes when there is the possibility to use existing infrastructure to provide the same energy services but with lower emissions.

Given the time it takes to build up new renewables and to implement energy efficiency improvements, this also represents a potential quick win for emissions reductions. There is potential in today’s power sector to reduce up to 1.2 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions by switching from coal to existing gas-fired plants, if relative prices and regulation support this potential. The vast majority of this potential lies in the United States and in Europe. Doing so would bring down global power sector emissions by 10% and total energy-related CO2 emissions by 4%.

 

Comparing emissions from coal and gas

Most of the gas and coal produced today is used for power generation and as a source of heat for industry and buildings.

While there is a wide variation across different sources of coal and gas, an estimated 98% of gas consumed today has a lower lifecycle emissions intensity than coal when used for power or heat. This analysis takes into account both CO2 and methane emissions and shows that, on average, coal-to-gas switching reduces emissions by 50% when producing electricity and by 33% when providing heat.

Enhanced efforts from the gas industry to ensure best practices all along the gas supply chain, especially to reduce methane leaks, are a cost-effective means to reduce the emissions intensity of gas supply and are essential to secure and maximise the climate benefits of switching to gas.

Full lifecycle emissions intensity of global coal and gas supply, 2018 
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Note: Emissions intensities include both indirect and combustion emissions for coal and gas. Horizontal axes equal the total gas and coal used for heat and electricity in 2018

  

     
  	

    	
Gas prices


The shale revolution in the United States has in general brought down gas prices, and the growth of destination-flexible, hub-priced LNG exports from the United States is providing a catalyst for a more liquid global gas market.


However, even though global gas markets are becoming more interconnected, there is still no global gas price. The lower energy density of gas compared to oil or coal means that transportation by pipeline or as LNG takes a relatively high share of the delivered cost, making geographical proximity to resource-rich areas an important determining factor for affordability.

    

    
    

Difference in the levelised cost of electricity between natural gas (CCGT) versus coal plants (supercritical)








	US
2013	-17.97
2014	-13.21
2015	-21.6
2016	-22.43
2017	-23.02

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	EU
2013	10.63
2014	4.04
2015	-1.78
2016	-14.84
2017	-20.83

{"subtitle":{"text":"European Union"},"xAxis":{"tickInterval":1},"chart":{"type":"area","height":300},"legend":{"enabled":false},"plotOptions":{"area":{"marker":{"enabled":false}}},"title":{"text":""},"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" per MWh","valuePrefix":"$","valueDecimals":0},"yAxis":{"min":-30,"max":90,"tickInterval":30,"title":{"text":"USD per MWh"}},"series":[{"colorIndex":8}],"responsive":{"rules":[{"condition":{"maxWidth":500},"chartOptions":{"chart":{"height":300}}}]}}





	China
2013	44.91
2014	52.52
2015	51.58
2016	37.64
2017	28.45
{"subtitle":{"text":"China"},"xAxis":{"tickInterval":1},"chart":{"type":"area","height":300},"legend":{"enabled":false},"plotOptions":{"area":{"marker":{"enabled":false}}},"title":{"text":""},"title":{"text":""},"tooltip":{"valueSuffix":" per MWh","valuePrefix":"$","valueDecimals":0},"yAxis":{"min":-30,"max":90,"tickInterval":30,"title":{"text":"USD per MWh"}},"series":[{"colorIndex":8}],"responsive":{"rules":[{"condition":{"maxWidth":500},"chartOptions":{"chart":{"height":300}}}]}}



	India
2013	54.79
2014	77.36
2015	53.07
2016	37.65
2017	34.45

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Focus on air quality

  
The policy push for coal-to-gas switching in China has been concentrated in urban areas, with the objective to replace coal-fired boilers in industrial facilities and residential buildings. These smaller-scale boilers (unlike those at large coal-fired power plants) are rarely equipped with advanced pollution controls and are a major contributor to poor air quality. Reducing their use, particularly for winter heating, is a key part of the effort to make China’s skies blue again.


Electricity provides the main alternative route away from reliance on coal. However, not all industrial applications can easily switch to electricity, and the number of new residential gas users in 2018 was twice as high as those opting for electric heating, suggesting that Chinese provincial governments still back the expansion of gas networks, despite concerns about affordability and higher imports.


In the residential sector, an extra 27 million households were connected to the gas grid in 2005-16 and an additional 7 million in 2017-18 alone.




	Blank	Particulate matter	Monthly natural gas consumption (right axis)
	71	127	19
	50	109	17
	43	72	17
	38	61	15
	42	48	15
	45	32	16
	43	47	16
	32	44	16
	34	38	15
	33	82	16
	65	67	17
	100	114	20
	63	103	21
	39	66	19
	64	44	19
	44	47	17
	35	30	16
	33	37	16
	26	58	16
	22	34	15
	27	57	18
	23	93	16
	79	90	19
	100	176	22
	106	93	22
	70	76	20
	49	36	20
	49	27	19
	39	39	20
	42	26	20
	34	31	20
	33	30	20
	39	35	20
	50	33	21
	45	45	22
	44	73	25
	34	95	26
	50	62	23
	56	52	23
	42	27	23
	41	15	24
	34	19	23
	31	18	23
	28	17	24
	26	11	23
	38	25	24
	57	62	27
 	44	66	28

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Note: µg/m3 = microgramme per cubic metre. The “2+26” cities are Beijing and Tianjin, plus an additional 26 cities in the surrounding provinces of Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong. IEA analysis based on air quality data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

 


  
Looking further into the future

  
The environmental case for building new gas infrastructure is complex, as policy makers need to be wary about locking in gas-related emissions even as they reduce emissions from coal. If new gas infrastructure prevents the combustion of more polluting fuels, this can increase absolute emissions but reduce them relative to what they would have been. In some instances, new gas infrastructure may also deliver services that cannot be cost-effectively provided by low-carbon alternatives, such as peak winter heating, seasonal storage, or high-temperature heat for industry. For both gas and coal, a crucial variable is the availability and deployment of carbon capture, utlisation and storage technology.


From a policy perspective, another key comparison is between the costs and feasibility of expanding the electricity grid versus the expansion of a gas grid that could eventually also deliver decarbonised gases (renewable methane or hydrogen) as well as providing benefits for energy security. Further detailed analysis of the role of gas infrastructure in energy transitions will be presented in the forthcoming World Energy Outlook 2019.