The Role of Teleconnections & Ensemble Forecasting in Extended- to Medium-Range Forecasting
Overview of the primary global teleconnections that influence weather regimes over the continental United States, along with an introduction to ensemble modeling. Focus is placed on building mental conceptual models of the background circulation within the extended- to medium-range periods, and applying ensemble modeling to glean detail from these patterns.
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Mesoscale Analysis of the Pre-Storm Convective Environment
An overview of severe local storms forecasting. The course begins with longer-lead synoptic scale pattern recognition, then focuses on evolution of the meso-beta to meso-gamma scale pre-storm environments. Emphasis is placed on diagnostic hand analysis techniques and the use of satellite and radar imagery to identify important sub-grid scale features such as density discontinuities and horizontal convective rolls.
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Field Observation of Severe Local Storms
In depth study of forecasting severe local storms behavior based on field observations, with a goal of determining effective photographic and videographic vantage points to document these events. The focus of this course will be on bounday evolution, storm interactions, and cascades of heat, mass, and momentum between the micro- & meso-scales. Chase strategies, ethics, and safety will also be emphasized.
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The Role of Isentropic Processes, Frontogenetical Forcing, Conditional & Potential Symmetric Instabilities, & Cloud Microphysics in Winter Storm Forecasting
Overview of winter precipitation processes with emphasis on the principal mechanisms that produce heavy snowfall. Focus will be on the evaluation of those processes in diagnostic and prognostic analyses.
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Use of Satellite Imagery During the Nowcast through Short-Range Periods
Overview of satellite image interpretation with emphasis on the signatures related to mesoscale processes. Review of imager and sounder products from both the GOES and POES systems.
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Numerical Weather Prediction in the Operational Setting
Review of the primary concepts of numerical modeling and survey of the operational NWP models from the U.S., Canada, United Kingdom, Europe, Japan, and Australia. Emphasis placed on model architecture, performance characteristics, and biases, with an overview of their ensemble runs.
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